Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch enters the 2025 season with high expectations after a strong rookie campaign, but advanced metrics suggest a potential sophomore slump.
Busch, 27, played an entire season in 2024, hitting .248 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs, and a 118 OPS+. The Cubs' confidence in him was evident when they traded Cody Bellinger, clearing the way for Busch to be their everyday first baseman.
However, Bleacher Report recently listed him as one of MLB's most prominent bust candidates for the upcoming season.
The primary concern? A significant gap between his batting average (.248) and expected batting average (.217), placing him in the 8th percentile among qualified hitters. While his 11.1% walk rate provides a solid foundation, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity suggest regression. The signs were evident late last season, as he struggled to a .216/.303/.402 line in the second half.
If Busch can maintain his power and plate discipline, he'll continue to be a productive bat in Chicago's lineup. However, if his batted-ball data proves predictive, the Cubs may need to reconsider their long-term plan at first base.
Busch's performance in 2025 will be under heavy scrutiny, with the team aiming for playoff contention. Will he rise to the challenge, or will the advanced stats prove correct?
