We are smack dab in the middle of the dead period, which means rosters/depth charts are constantly being poured over in efforts to further analyze players and storylines as training camp draws near.
Part of the aforementioned analyzation is roster projection. In other words: Who makes the team and who doesn't?
In this specific case, we'll go over five Commanders draft picks, all of them having been selected since 2021, that are on track to get cut when final decisions are made on August 27.
1. DT Phidarian Mathis
Of all the names on this list, Mathis is the most "expensive" of the bunch. He was drafted with the 47th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and even then, the pick was met with a ton of doubt and scrutiny, even.
The doubters and naysayers have been proven right, so far, even if the conditional victory is anchored by injury, more than anything. Mathis tore his knee up after playing a grand total of three snaps in 2022 and a calf injury kept him on IR until Week 8 of the 2023 season.
Once Mathis actually got on the field, his performance was subpar. Granted, the injuries probably played a big role - lower extremity injuries on big men are never easy to rebound from. At the same time, however, this is the NFL and there's a new regime in town. All that matters, right now, is what you do on the practice field.
With Johnny Newton in the fold (even with the foot surgery) and the presence of John Ridgeway (whom Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. helped the Cowboys draft in 2022), it's easy to see Mathis as DT5, at best, right now.
That means he's the odd man out and he'll need a very strong summer if he wants to make the 53-man roster.
2. T Braeden Daniels
Daniels was drafted in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft and he is on track to get cut before he plays a single snap in a Commanders uniform - both on offense and special teams. The former Utah Ute was placed on season-ending IR before Week 1, but wasn't playing well before that happened, either.
He may simply get phased out because of numbers. Currently, Daniels is the third-best swing tackle option on the roster behind Cornelius Lucas and Trent Scott. Typically, teams only carry one swing tackle on a 53-man roster, so you can see why the math isn't working in his favor, already.
If Brandon Coleman doesn't win the starting job over Lucas, then he's likely to become the team's swing tackle. If Coleman wins, then Lucas will definitely nail down the swing job, as he has throughout his tenure in Washington.
The Commanders should carry at least nine offensive linemen on the 53-man roster, but six of those spots will be filled out, through whatever combination of players, and it's easy to see where the other three positions get filled - along the interior. If Daniels doesn't get it done in late July-August, he's toast.
3. WR Dax Milne
Milne showed OK return ability in 2022, but a season-ending 2023 injury derailed whatever momentum he had going into his third season.
The former seventh-rounder is entering a contract year and fortunately for him, the new regime is giving him chances to prove his worth at returner. Let's be real: That's his best shot at making the roster, even in a receiver room that's unestablished beyond Terry McLaurin (yes, the jury is still out on Jahan Dotson). The NFL's new kickoff rules could also give him a shot to prove he's worth a roster spot.
At the same time, a new regime also means zero ties from the past, which works against Milne. Combine that with the fact that Jamison Crowder is likely to hold down a return spot and it makes an effective summer all the more necessary for Milne.
4. DE Andre Jones Jr.
The 2023 seventh-rounder played 250 special teams snaps during his rookie year, which is a substantial amount (65% to be exact).
The ultimate product left a lot to be desired and now, Jones Jr. finds himself not only competing with some of the guys from last year, but a quartet of newcomers in Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell, Dante Fowler, and rookie seventh-rounder, Javonte Jean-Baptiste.
Currently, one could say Jones Jr. is as low as DE7 on the depth chart, with DE6 being the best-case scenario. That is obviously a really, really big hill to climb and the odds of Jones Jr. achieving that are low, at best.
