Ezekiel Elliott's release last offseason was a bitter pill for Dallas Cowboys fans to swallow. While it unquestionably was the right move, Elliott deserved a better send-off. His final contribution, for lack of a better term, in a Cowboys uniform was lining up at center on the final play of Dallas' 2023 playoff loss against the 49ers. Elliott got pancaked and the play itself was a disaster.
As it turns out, Elliott will get one last hoorah with the Cowboy after he signed a one-year contract worth essentially the vet minimum. Jerry Jones teased the move for weeks before it was official, including during the NFL Draft, which oddly wasn't utilized by Dallas to add a running back.
With Elliott returning, folks are eager to know how the backfield carries will get split up. Will Rico Dowdle get promoted to RB1 after an impressive 2023 campaign? Will free-agent pickup Royce Freeman ascend up the depth chart in training camp? It makes for a captivating next couple of months
In the meantime, ESPN's Mike Clay has projected the 2024 season in full (win probability each week, player stats, etc.) for all 32 teams. Clay thinks Dallas has a greater than 50% win probability in 16 of 17 games, but one prediction in particular sticks out like a sore thumb.
Ezekiel Elliott prediction could mean bad news for the Cowboys in 2024
Clay thinks that Elliott will lead the Cowboys in rushing with 751 yards and six touchdowns. That's solid production, but that also means Zeke will lead the way with 191 carries. In Clay's projection, fan favorite Rico Dowdle will receive 113 carries, a whopping 73 behind the elder statesman.
Elliott holds a special place in Cowboys fans' hearts, but this projection is something that nobody wants to see in the year 2024. While 191 carries would by far be Elliott's lowest tally as a member of the Cowboys, he's been on a downward trajectory since the 2021 season.
Over the last four seasons, Zeke has averaged 3.87 yards per attempt. The two-time rushing champ handled 184 carries last year for the Patriots. While that offense couldn't get out of its own way, Elliott posted a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. The advanced stats look even worse.
Elliott's 69.2 rushing grade last season ranked 28th out of 30 qualified running backs, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He also was 25th in yards after contact per carry, 29th in missed tackles forced and dead-last in explosive runs, which are rushes of 10 or more yards.
To top it off, Zeke was bottom 10 in rushing yards over expected and bottom 15 in rushing efficiency, per Next Gen Stats.
In a vacuum, Elliott is still a serviceable player. He'd be perfect as a short-yardage complement to a spry youngster who's just entering their prime. The problem is that the Cowboys don't have another proven back on the roster, which makes Elliott the presumptive favorite to pace the offense in carries.
That was a bad idea in 2022. The fact it could manifest itself in 2024 is complete lunacy.
