The Tennessee Titans will enter the 2024 season with a new look. Gone are the days of Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill running a smashmouth offense with Mike Vrabel on the sideline. The new Titans offense will feature more passing and more fantasy points for their pass catchers.
With the offseason acquisition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, GM Ran Carthon created a formidable duo that also features former All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. Lets dive into how the targets will shake out for these two pass catchers in this new-look offense, which of these wide receivers you should draft, and which is a better value at their current average draft position (ADP).
2023 Season
Last season, Ridley came back from a suspension that caused him to miss the 2022 campaign to lead the Jacksonville Jaguars in both receiving yards and touchdowns. The veteran wideout had the second 1,000 yard season of his career and finished as the WR17 in half PPR format.
The University of Alabama product often looked disconnected from quarterback Trevor Lawrence though, finishing with a career low catch rate of 55.9%. This also led to inconsistent fantasy performances as Ridley had five games above 19 fantasy points and eight games below seven fantasy points.
Hopkins finished as the WR22 after a productive 2023 campaign, his first season as a Titan. The five-time Pro Bowler had his seventh 1,000 yard season of his career while catches passes from both Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis.
Situation
After five seasons with the Bengals, new head coach Brain Callahan comes to the Titans expecting to bring a pass-heavy scheme and more up-tempo offense than the team has used in prior years. The team has poured various resources into the offensive line to help support this transition, using the seventh overall pick on tackle JC Latham and giving center Lloyd Cushenberry $50 million in free agency. Callahan was also able to convince his father, legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan, to join a team that's flush with young, high draft capital offensive lineman.
Quarterback Will Levis enters his second season looking to expand on some of the flashes he showed as a rookie. So far this pre-season, Levis has completed over 84% of his passes and led the Titans on scoring drives on each of the four possessions he's played.
The Titans wide receiver room was filled out earlier this offseason with the addition of Tyler Boyd, who will be a key fixture in the slot for the team. Boyd joins DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley in a room that also includes former first round pick Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and rookie sixth round pick Jha'quan Jackson.
Role & Target Share
Assuming Hopkins is back by Week 1, per the team's latest update, he's expected to reprise his role as the starting "X" receiver for the Titans. Ridley will be the team's outside "Z" receiver and Boyd will play the same slot role that he's manned for years in Callahan's offense. The team's starting wide receivers will see plenty of opportunity in a Callahan offense that ranked second in pass rate and sixth in target share for wide receivers last season.
Hopkins was the alpha last season, finishing with a 26.9% target share from Will Levis, per Fantasy Points Data. The Clemson product was used as a down field threat frequently in a play-action heavy offense. The veteran finished with his highest yards per reception since 2017 and was second in the league in both air yards and deep targets, per Pro Football Network. Given the change in offensive system to more quick passing and the added target competition, Hopkins' target share and yards per reception are likely to decline this season.
Ridley scored eight touchdowns in his lone season as a Jaguar, a mark that he's hit in three of the four NFL seasons in which he's played at least six games (a mark Hopkins has hit only once in his past five seasons). The Fort Lauderdale native had a higher contested catch rate in 2023 than Hopkins and projects as a better down field and red zone threat at this point in their careers. Given his big play ability and red zone usage, Ridley should push for the lead the team in yardage and touchdowns even if he isn't the team's target leader.
Projection
I project DeAndre Hopkins to lead the team in targets (140) and finish with a receiving line of 82 catches for 1,080 yards and six touchdowns. If Hopkins can stay healthy this season, this line would give him a nearly identical finish to last season when he was the WR22 among half-PPR scoring leaders. Given his current ADP of WR43, Hopkins is someone that I'm willing to take a shot on despite the age and injury concerns.
Calvin Ridley's touchdown and big play ability could lead to volatile weekly outputs, but produce matchup winning fantasy performances. I'm projecting a line of 76 catches for 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 135 targets. This would make Ridley a top 15 to 20 wide receiver, similar to his WR17 finish last year, and a huge value on his WR35 ADP.
While there is risk in both Hopkins and Ridley given age and time missed due to injury in previous seasons, both are worthy value-based picks at their current ADP. The Titans passing offense will have large volume and these two pass catchers will be the main targets for quarterback Will Levis. While I wouldn't draft either player near where I'm projecting them to finish, I'd gladly grab Hopkins and Ridley a round or two earlier than their ADP to ensure I get them ahead of my league mates.
