Before the legal tampering period opened, the Denver Broncos made an in-house splash by re-signing defensive tackle D.J. Jones to a three-year, $39 million deal. This comes after he finished his three-year, $30 million contract the Broncos gave him in 2022.
When you factor in inflation, the deals are about the same, but the question arises: Did the Broncos overpay for Jones?
Jones is 30 years old and will be 33 when the deal ends. That isn’t a significant issue, as defensive linemen like him often play into their mid-30s.
Jones' 2024 season saw him play 40.26% of the defensive snaps, though. A deal worth $13 million annually is rich for someone who barely played over 50% of the snaps just once in three years with the Broncos. The simple fact is that he's a nose tackle who doesn’t see the field all the time.
However, there are claims that Jones' run defense is elite, justifying the new contract. But he ranks slightly above the middle of the pack with his run defense metrics when you study the analytics. He doesn’t offer enough as a pass rusher to make up for it, which is also backed by analytics.
To gauge whether the Broncos overpaid for Jones, look at other free-agent interior defenders to see what they got. This is a good indicator of Jones' market. These have to be similar players in style and usage, which, for example, Javon Kinlaw isn’t, though he got massively overpaid.
Poona Ford and B.J. Hill are two nose tackles who are better than Jones against the run, not only by analytics but also when you turn on the tape. They're also similarly aged and they performed better as pass rushers.
Both garnered less than what Jones did on the market, as Ford signed for about $10 million annually and Hill for $11 million/year. This suggests the market for Jones may not have been in the area the Broncos paid, unfortunately. Ford and Hill were among the elite run-defender category for defensive linemen and have been for a few years, unlike Jones.
A few other defensive linemen who are closer to Jones in the run-defense analytics also signed for less than Jones did. Simply put, Jones is a good run defender who got paid to be an elite run defender but doesn’t have the pass-rushing chops to make up for the difference.
So, yes' on the surface, the Broncos overpaid for him, technically speaking.
However, the Broncos value retaining someone familiar with their defense. The team also values Jones for what he brings to the locker room, where his teammates love him. The reaction his teammates had on social media to Jones' re-signing makes that clear. That could be worth overpaying him.
Will this hurt Denver's positional budgeting to keep Zach Allen or John Franklin-Myers, with both wanting new contracts this offseason? Allen has taken it to the team, while Franklin-Myers is making it clear on social media.
Jones isn't more valuable than either of them, and now the Broncos should do the right thing and try to reward Allen and Franklin-Myers, both of whom are coming off a career year.
Bottom Line
For now, the Broncos keeping Jones is a good thing, even with a slight overpay according to what the market suggests his value would’ve been, though there's no way to know for sure. There is also no way to know how much value the Broncos placed on Jones internally for his familiarity and locker room presence.
Time will tell how much this contract helps or hurts the Broncos.
