It’s one thing for Shohei Ohtani to have a shot at becoming the first player in Major League Baseball history to have a 50-home run, 50-stolen-base season. It’s another for almost all of ESPN’s baseball experts to predict him to do it.
The Worldwide Leader published its September predictions on Tuesday, September 3, polling 18 of its baseball writers and analysts on what to expect from the final month of the season. One of the questions the panel answered was: Will Shohei Ohtani become the first member of the 50/50 club?
16 answered yes, two answered no.
For context, Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers enter play on September 3 with 24 games remaining. Ohtani currently has 44 home runs and 46 steals thanks to a bonkers three-stolen-base Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
“He’s going to get there because he’s fully capable, because he’s on pace to and because the Dodgers’ games will continue to matter down the stretch,” ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez explained.
Some quick math shows Gonzalez is right. At this pace, he is on track to hit 51.6 home runs (or, 52, since you can’t hit six tenths of a home run). He’s also on track for exactly 54 stolen bases.
Shohei Ohtani ‘Really Wants’ to Be a 50-50 Player
Gonzalez added another note that those who don’t cover him regularly may overlook: Ohtani seems to really want that 50-50 season.
“Perhaps just as important: He’s going to get there because it seems as if he really wants to,” Gonzalez explained. “An understated element of Ohtani is how in tune he is with his mark on the sport. Given that he wouldn’t pitch, he saw this as the year when he could maximize his value on the bases. And he won’t let an opportunity for 50-50 slip past him.”
With Ohtani eyeing a 2025 return to pitching, this might be his only chance at a 50-50 season. Putting aside the reality that it’s a milestone so hard to reach no one has done it before and he might not be in position to do it again, Ohtani’s focus will shift next year.
He’ll still hit, as he always has. He’ll still steal bases. But as someone who will pitch once every five days, it’s less likely he will create havoc on the basepaths quite like he has in 2024.
Dave Roberts Will Play Ohtani as He Goes for History
The Dodgers have a five-game lead on the San Diego Padres for first place in the NL West — a relatively comfortable cushion for early September. Once Los Angeles locks up a playoff spot (or maybe a division crown), it would make sense for manager Dave Roberts to give his stars a rest as they get ready for the postseason.
As long as Ohtani is healthy, however, Roberts confirmed he will play.
“I was thinking about giving him an off-day tomorrow,” Roberts joked to the media after the Dodgers’ win Monday, per Michael Reynolds of MLB.com. “How would that go? Would that go over OK?”
Roberts then made it clear his comment was in jest and that Ohtani would continue to play regularly even after the Dodgers clinch. He added that includes Tuesday night when the slugger makes what should be an emotional return to Angel Stadium, which he called home for the first six seasons of his career.
As a bonus, if Ohtani homers during the two-game set, it will be the 100th of his career in Anaheim.
