Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs have a very nice rookie season in 2023, but it was also easy to see a path to better production this season. That happened, as he topped 1,900 yards from scrimmage with a franchise single-season record 20 touchdowns (16 rushing, four receiving).
Of course Gibbs also reached a new level in fantasy football terms this season. Counting Week 18 he was the RB1 in full-point PPR, and he was a top-three running back in the most common scoring formats for the typical fantasy season (Week 1-Week 17). During playoff weeks in most leagues (Week 15-17), he was undoubtedly a "league winner."
The days of being able to draft Gibbs outside the first round of a fantasy draft are over for the foreseeable future. The case for him as the No. 1 running back in dynasty leagues was strong before this season, and it's only better now.
Fantasy Football: A bold proclamation for where Jahmyr Gibbs should go in 2025 drafts
As part of his 2024 season review of the position in fantasy football, Nic Bodiford of Pro Football Focus named Gibbs the "best performer overall" among running backs.
"Gibbs proved himself as the NFL’s premier dual-threat running back in 2024, finishing as the Weeks 1-17 overall RB2. He jumps to the No. 1 overall spot when factoring in Week 18."
"Among 33 running backs with at least 130 rushing attempts in Weeks 1-17, Gibbs ranked eighth in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.4) and missed tackles forced (58), fifth in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.26), third in yards per rushing attempt (5.6), first down-plus-touchdown rate (27.3%) and explosive run plays (37) and first in explosive run play rate (16.3%)."
Counting Week 18, Bodiford highlighted Gibbs' 46.2 percent green-zone first down-plus-touchdown rate trailing only Derrick Henry's among 27 running backs with at least 15 green-zone rushing attempts over the course of the season.
Bodiford then went on to praise Gibbs' chops in the passing game this season.
"Among 33 running backs with at least 200 receiving snaps in Weeks 1-17, Gibbs ranked tied for 10th in target rate (19.7%), eighth in explosive pass-play rate (17.0%), fourth in yards per route run (1.65) and second in both yards per reception (10.3) and yards after the catch per reception (12.1)."
Bodiford summed things up by noting Gibbs' unrealized fantasy scoring potential, since he finished 16th among running backs with 274 touches from Week 1-17 (David Montgomery was 24th with 221). Montgomery's touch rate was also 58 percent (first among running backs with at least 150 touches this season), compared to Gibbs' 47.4 percent (13th).
Then Bodiford levied a punch line about Gibbs.
"Gibbs should be considered the heavy favorite for the 1.01 spot in 2025 fantasy football drafts."
As much as anyone is looking toward 2025 fantasy drafts at this point, "how high will he go?" is the question about Gibbs. No. 1 overall feels a little rich right now, but top-five is a lock and it should remain that way from now all the way to the teeth of draft time.
