One of the most fascinating matchups for the Bucs against the Ravens on Monday Night Football will be how Bucs head coach Todd Bowles decides to attack the Ravens’ favorite personnel grouping. The Ravens prefer to run 12 personnel – comprising of one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers – on early downs as much as possible.
The Ravens have gone heavy on first down, utilizing at least two tight ends or a tight end and a fullback, over 70% of the time. They rank 7th in EPA/play on first down in the NFL with a +0.057 mark. Against the Washington Commanders last week, they were able to exploit a defense that preferred to be in nickel by forcing them to play in base almost 25 times as much as they previously had during the rest of the season.
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To Tykee Or Not To Tykee, That is The Question
Bucs DB Tykee Smith – Photo by: USA Today
This presents an interesting problem for the Bucs. Nickelback Tykee Smith is a top-five player on the Bucs defense. But will he get to see the field early? Or will he be relegated to third-down duty when the Ravens typically move to 11 personnel with three receivers?
Most would argue Smith should be on the field over K.J. Britt, but the decision isn’t an either/or between those two. When Smith comes on the field, it isn’t Britt who clears the field. It’s a defensive lineman. Most of the time, it’s Logan Hall.
If the Ravens are in 12p, they average 267 pounds per player. The Bucs then have the choice to run base personnel, averaging 244 pounds per player, or going nickel and reducing that mass by 78 pounds total. While base personnel allows the Bucs to match size better, it unquestionably takes one of their best players off the field.
Now, Smith is a fantastic run defender, so perhaps Bowles opts to keep him on the field in these situations. But that would be a huge change in his tendencies this season.
Ravens’ Unique Use Of 12P
It’s not just that Baltimore deploys heavy personnel in general, but specifically how they use it that makes it difficult for opposing defenses to match.
Most teams use 12 personnel under center and with both tight ends in-line. But the Ravens have a chess piece in tight end Isaiah Likely, who they have deployed in the slot or out wide on 132 of his 256 snaps this season. They also have spent over 70% of their snaps in either shotgun or pistol.
If the Bucs choose to go nickel and further choose to try and match the Ravens run game with a heavy 5-man front by bringing either K.J. Britt or Lavonte David onto the line of scrimmage, they are opting to either leave a single linebacker at the second level or forcing themselves into a single-high pre-snap look.
This would make it difficult for the Bucs to run cover-4, something Bowles has done more this year than ever in the past, unless he is comfortable running exotic rotations post-snap with a backup cornerback in Tyrek Funderburk or Josh Hayes playing. All of it is fascinating.
The Bucs’ Run Defense This Year
Normally a staple of a Todd Bowles defense, Tampa Bay has not been as stout against the run this year. They currently rank 30th in EPA/rush allowed. However, when parsing those numbers, it turns out the Bucs are still pretty good against the ground game on first down. They are currently allowing -0.13 EPA/play in those situations with just a 30.9% success rate.
On first down this season, the splits are stark between base and nickel as far as the Bucs’ run defense is concerned. With the extra defensive back, the Bucs are the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 6.2 yards per carry and +0.07 EPA/play. When they go base, they move up to third-best at 3.7 yards per carry allowed and -0.37 EPA/play allowed.
There isn’t an ideal situation. If Tampa Bay goes nickel early against Baltimore’s heavy personnel, it will be sacrificing size and putting themselves in a position where they have not been very good against the run. But if they stay heavy, they open themselves up to play-action where Lamar Jackson has been incredible this year, especially over the middle of the field.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jackson is completing 73% of his passes while averaging 10 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions on play-action this year. They have him with a 90.5 grade per their grading metrics this year. And when targeting the intermediate center of the field, an area the Bucs have struggled mightily to cover this year, he is 23-of-26 for 369 yards and four touchdowns. That comes out to an 88.5 completion rate and 14.2 yards per attempt with an unheard of 97.2 grade from PFF.
Win or lose, the result of the Bucs’ Monday Night matchup against the Ravens will likely hinge largely on Bowles’ answers for the Ravens’ unique matchup problem.
