Juan Soto is already one of the best hitters in baseball, and just turned 26 years old last month.
Skepticism — if not outright apathy — has run rampant among Red Sox fans over the last few winters.
After all, Boston has only punched its ticket to October once over the last six seasons.
But the Red Sox’ relative inaction during the offseason in recent years have further twisted the knife for fans who once relished in seeing their team acquire top-flight talent every December.
After a supposedly “full throttle” offseason led to underwhelming returns in 2024, Red Sox fans have warranted reservations about any rumors linking Boston to more marquee talents in free agency.
It’s why recent reports tying Boston to superstar outfielder Juan Soto have seen initial excitement give way to dubiety.
While contending teams with deep pockets like the Yankees and Mets are expected to be frontrunners for Soto, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has tabbed Boston as one of the teams in the mix for the slugger.
Given Boston’s recent track record of balking during high-priced bidding wars, the Red Sox seem like a dark-horse candidate to reel in a free agent like Soto — who The Athletic projects to land a 13-year, $611 million contract this winter.
Of course, Soto is not just any top free-agent target.
He’s a generational talent — one with the skill (and age) that could justify Boston breaking from its offseason autopilot in hopes of ushering in a new era of contention.
Soto’s price tag will be steep. But for a team with the fiscal capabilities like the Red Sox, signing Soto is about as close to a slam dunk as one could want in free agency.
Soto is arguably the best hitter in baseball
Yes, the Red Sox’ top priority this offseason should be bolstering their pitching. And sure, Soto’s arrival further tilts a lefty-heavy lineup more to that side of the plate.
But Soto is the type of slugger where you might discard those thoughts and just look at the baseline results.
Soto is coming off an MVP-caliber campaign with the Yankees in 2024, batting .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBI, and a .419 on-base percentage. His production carried over into the postseason, where he helped New York win an A.L. pennant by batting .327 with four home runs and nine RBI over 14 playoff games.
His sterling season in the Bronx surely elevated his value even further ahead of his big payday.
But make no mistake, Soto has been an impact bat and on-base machine ever since making his debut as a teenager in 2018.
Over the span of his seven-year career spent in Washington, San Diego, and New York, Soto has averaged 6.3 WAR per season to go along with 35 home runs and 102 RBI. He has already surpassed 30 home runs three times in his career, to go along with the NL batting title (.351) in a COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
But his plate discipline is truly what sets him apart. Soto has posted an on-base percentage above .400 for seven straight seasons. As a 22-year-old outfielder during the 2021 season, he walked 145 times. The only big leaguer to surpass that mark since the start of the 2000 campaign was Barry Bonds.
With Rafael Devers already in place, the Red Sox could boast one of the best 1-2 punches in the majors if they get Soto to sign on the dotted line.
He’s just entering his prime
The Red Sox have been hesitant when it comes to handing out six-figure deals in free agency as of late, especially to players 30 or older.
But Soto stands as a rare outlier in terms of free-agent targets, with the outfielder only just turning 26 last month. He’s the first superstar talent to hit the open market going into his age-26 season since Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in 2019.
The Red Sox were operating with plenty of risk with their last free-agent megadeal, giving a 30-year-old David Price $217 million in December 2015.
But Soto is arguably not even in his prime yet, with the slugger still expected to stuff the box score for the next decade before any concerns sprout up about a supposed decline.
For all of the talk of the Red Sox being unwilling to pony up the big bucks as of late, the team has been receptive to spending heavily for players in the same coveted age bracket as Soto.
Be it Boston handing 26-year-old Rafael Devers a $331 million contract in January 2023 or reportedly offering 25-year-old ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto a $300 million bid last winter, the Red Sox seem to understand that there’s a time and place to break the bank.
And Soto falls right into that sweet spot of age, potential, and already-established production.
He has a swing built for Fenway Park
For all of the concerns of the Red Sox adding yet another lefty to their lineup, a player with Soto’s profile could easily swat 40 home runs and 40+ doubles playing 82 games at Fenway Park each summer.
Boston’s ballpark is already one of the more favorable venues for left-handed hitters, especially ones who can also drive the ball to the opposite field and either put dents in the Green Monster or muscle pitches into the first row of those elevated seats.
Even though Soto swatted several home runs into the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, he’s established himself as a refined batter capable of driving the ball to all fields — and feasting against both right and left-handed pitching.
Last season, Soto sported a .999 OPS against righties and .969 against lefties. In total, 18 of Soto’s 41 home runs last season with the Yankees were hit out to left or center field.
Yankee Stadium might be the ideal spot for Soto due to its short right field. But Fenway Park might fall right behind New York’s ballpark in terms of preferred venues.
Soto’s signing could free up other moves
Of course, the Red Sox can’t just call their 2024 offseason a success if they only ink Soto to a mega-deal and leave the rest of the roster intact.
Boston still needs more pitching, both at the top of their rotation and in their bullpen. If the Red Sox somehow manage to hook Soto for $600+ million, it seems unlikely that Boston would also be in the market for free-agent starters worth six figures like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried.
But Soto’s presence in Boston’s outfield and his assured production in the lineup could also prompt the Red Sox to deal assets in exchange for impact pitching. Could a Soto signing make other lefty batters like Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, or even Triston Casas expendable?
If some of those coveted big leaguers play a part in landing a pitcher like Garrett Crochet, Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, or one of the Mariners’ crop of young starters, it could be a worthwhile maneuver for Craig Breslow and Co.
It would signal that the Red Sox are ready to contend again
Alex Cora didn’t mince words during his last address to the media in September.
“I truly believe this is the last struggle,” Cora, who signed a three-year extension this summer, said during Boston’s season-ending media availability. “I do believe we’re going to turn the corner in the offseason. We’re gonna be ready to go in spring training. We’re going to have a very talented group next year.”
For all of the flak the Red Sox have received in recent years, that sour sentiment can be expunged in record time with a signing like Soto.
Not only would a superstar like Soto elevate Boston’s roster, it would also ramp up the urgency for a Red Sox team that would seemingly be operating above the luxury-tax threshold for multiple years with Soto’s contract on the books.
The Red Sox have preached patience for years as it looked to the future and cultivated a stout prospect pipeline. Bringing in a star like Soto would allow Boston to take the next step in its efforts to re-assert itself as a contender — especially with the franchise buoyed by an influx of young, cost-controlled talent.
Relying on free agency alone to build a contending team is often a flawed approach in pro sports. But it can also be a conduit through which promising teams are taken to the next level.
The Dodgers certainly seem to have no regrets over handing players like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani hefty contracts over the last few seasons. And how about the Rangers’ pursuit of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien?
And in Soto, there’s even fewer doubts about just what type of bang the Red Sox would get for their bucks.
