The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated their old captain, Steven Stamkos, and the Nashville Predators in overtime on home ice on Monday night (Oct. 28) in one of the biggest games of the season. Stamkos’s offseason replacement (Jake Guentzel) fed a beautiful cross-crease pass to Nick Paul, who tapped home the game-winner for the Lightning. Monday night’s game was filled with emotion, as the club starts passing the torch to the next generation of players.
Rookie Conor Geekie is vital to the next generation of Bolts. The Lightning acquired this blue-chip prospect in the Mikhail Sergachev trade over the summer. The 6-foot-4 forward tore up the Western Hockey League (WHL) at the Canadian Junior A level with dominant performances as a member of the Winnipeg Ice, Wenatchee Wild, and Swift Current Broncos (via EliteProspects).
Geekie’s Early Season Production and Possession Numbers
Spending two seasons after his draft date at the junior level, Geekie played just two American Hockey League playoff games with the Tucson Roadrunners before making the jump to the NHL with Tampa Bay. In his first nine NHL games, Geekie has a goal and an assist. While his point production isn’t quite there yet, expected from a rookie with minimal pro experience, he’s been a critical piece to the roster. Starting in a third-line role, he joined the top six with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Since the switch, his on-ice possession numbers have sky-rocketed.
Geekie ranks fifth on the Lightning in expected goals for percentage (xGF%), controlling 55.08% of the on-ice share. The Lightning produced 17 high-danger shot attempts while surrendering 14 against (HDCF%) with Geekie on the ice at 5-on-5 (via NaturalStatTrick). However, he is not heavily relied on in the defensive zone by head coach Jon Cooper.
His 8.84 defensive zone start percentage (DZS%) ranks 11th of 13 Lightning forwards. Cooper relies on his defensive centers, like Luke Glendening and Cirelli, to clear pucks out of the zone on a defensive zone draw. With time, I expect Geekie’s role to continue to increase as he builds a relationship with the coaching staff.
Geekie’s Early Season Microstats Report Card
I plan to hand-track microstats for the Lightning throughout the 2024-25 season. This dataset will include data points such as passes, zone entries, and additional stats the NHL doesn’t cover. I will continue to share my findings throughout the season, so stay tuned for updates.
I’ve covered two games at five-on-five for the Lightning this season (Oct. 11 and Oct. 15), and Geekie’s been effective on zone entries with possession. He is tied for fifth in zone entry carry-ins amongst the Lightning forwards. However, it’s what he does following the controlled entry that impressed me the most. He’s finding his open teammates off the rush and generating scoring chances. His three-zone entry passes rank third on the team (forwards only), and his two rush shots rank tied for second (forwards only). The rookie is playing with confidence in the early stages of his NHL career, as he’s only dumped the puck once on five zone entries, giving Geekie a controlled zone entry percentage of 80%.
An area where Geekie can sharpen his game is the defensive zone on the boards. While he was a center in his junior days, he must trust his size and speed along the wall. Geekie has three-zone exit clears compared to no controlled zone exits (the player skates the puck out of the defensive zone with possession). Furthermore, he’s failed to exit the zone twice, which indicates he can be stronger on the puck.
What’s Next for Geekie?
The first nine NHL games for the Lightning’s prized rookie have been solid. Geekie has made a name for himself in the lineup and has the toolbox to become a solid secondary scorer by the end of the season. He’s the best prospect the organization has seen in years, and the sky is the limit for the 20-year-old forward. The Lightning continue their season Wednesday night (Oct. 30) against Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche.
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