With a few recent losses against divisional rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s third defense pairing continues to receive criticism from fans across social media. After all, they have been on the ice for some untimely goals that directly led to these losses against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens.
A common narrative amongst Lightning fans is that Nick Perbix isn’t a good defenseman and ] the Lightning need to find an upgrade for him at the 2025 Trade Deadline. However, based on my tracking experience and public data, I believe the issue stems from the partner Perbix plays with.
Perbix’s Defense Partner Background
Perbix plays with the 6-foot-3 monster Emil Lilleberg on the Tampa Bay blue line. There’s a divide among fans regarding Lilleberg. While he provides physicality and booming checks, his defensive game is amongst the worst in the NHL this season. His 11 assists in 43 games are respectable from a production standpoint, but hockey has always been a matter of what you create minus what you give up. From that standpoint, Lilleberg has been outscored 21-31 at five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick this season and 18-33 last season.
Perbix’s Historic Player Archetype Narrative
Before jumping into the numbers, Perbix has the player archetype that gets trashed by NHL fans around the league: the offensive-minded defender who makes that one horrific-but-memorable mistake at the wrong time. Players involved in that narrative include Evan Bouchard and Damon Severson. While these high-risk, high-reward players aren’t elite defensively, they positively impact their team’s success. Perbix is falling under that same narrative for some Lightning fans, just to the degree of a third-pairing guy.
The With/Without Tool
The combination of Perbix and Lilleberg have spent roughly 426 minutes of ice time together at five on five this season. In those minutes, they’ve been outshot 188-197, outscored 17-19, and have controlled 48.50% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%). These totals and rates aren’t impressive by any means, but how these two perform isolated from one another tells a more complete story.
In 205 minutes isolated from Perbix, Lilleberg’s on-ice stats are even worse than his minutes with him. Lilleberg has been outshot 70-92, outscored 4-12, and has controlled 41.44% of the on-ice expected goal share. He controls 25% of the on-ice goal share, which means the opposing team scores triple the goals when Lilleberg is on the ice without Perbix.
On the other hand, Perbix’s on-ice stats are extremely impressive in his minutes isolated from Lilleberg. In 177 minutes away from him, Perbix has outshot his opponents 84-72, outscored them 10-7, and has controlled 54.90% of the on-ice expected goal share. These numbers indicate Perbix is a serviceable two-way defenseman when not paired with Lilleberg, and his numbers take a hit when paired with the Norwegian.
Perbix Shouldn’t Get a Bad Rap
While last season was rough for Perbix, he’s bounced back with solid play. In hindsight, he’s one of the better third-pairing defensemen in the NHL. His four goals and 12 points in 41 games are solid from a production standpoint despite zero time on the power play. He can play a maximum of 77 games this season, and his current totals put him on pace for 23 points. There aren’t many third-pairing defensemen that can record 20-30 points at even strength, control the pace of play, and make just $1.125 million per season.
Perbix is a valuable asset to the Lightning in the future, and if they believe he’s expendable due to his expiring contract, Tampa Bay must hope to get a solid return or else he’ll flourish in another environment with a different defense partner. The last thing the Lightning need to upgrade is their third-pairing right-handed defenseman at the deadline. Tampa Bay should be focused on finding middle-six goal-scoring and give Lilleberg more time in the American Hockey League to develop his defensive game.
Players like Perbix are easy to blame for losses and are often scapegoats for many fans. However, fans often forget the numbers in this article come from events in a game they watch with their own eyes. They aren’t fake, and numbers are facts that don’t lie. The bottom line is that the Lightning and Perbix are better off with Lilleberg on the bench. With a more suitable partner, Perbix’s game will skyrocket, and he will start to get fair recognition in the league.
