Through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season, no team was hotter than the New Orleans Saints. They led the NFL in points scored, had an elite rushing offense, and were able to play well enough on defense to avoid constantly being placed into shootouts, even if they could likely win them if they really tried.
And then, in Week 3, everything fell apart.
Suddenly, the Saints could only score 12 points, Derek Carr looked uncomfortable under center, and New Orleans’ perfect record was thwarted by a Philadelphia Eagles team that was only able to put up 15 points due to injuries, strange decisions, and the ever-elusive blocked punt.
Were the Saints fool’s gold all along? Or was it just a weird week that fans look back on in a few weeks as a true misstep on the way to an NFC South pennant? Well, in Week 4, the Saints have a chance to prove they are legit once more, as the Atlanta Falcons are a deeply flawed team that isn’t very good at stopping the things New Orleans does very well.
1. Alvin Kamara runs wild on the Falcons’ defense
After leading the most effective offense through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season, scoring 91 yards against the Carolina Panthers and the Dallas Cowboys combined, Carr simply didn’t get much going through the air in Week 3, throwing for just 130 yards through the air in a 12-15 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Gone were the easy plays, the cap-tipping pre-snap motions, and the easy efforts on money downs, and in their place came an afternoon of near-constant pressure, where Carr was constantly on the move despite only being sacked once.
Now granted, could the Falcons watch the Philadelphia tape, study how Vic Fangio got Carr off-balance with his five-man fronts, and really give him an uncomfortable afternoon? Sure thing, but it’s just as likely the Saints will look to rebound in Week 4 with a strong effort on the ground in order to take the pressure off of Carr, as the Falcons haven’t been very good against the run so far this season.
Facing off against a Falcons defense that has allowed more rushing yards than passing yards in Week 1 and 2 and still allowed 128 rushing yards to the Chiefs in Week 3 – with UDFA running back Carson Steele logging the bulk of the carries – only four teams have allowed more rushing yards than Atlanta so far this season, and only one of those teams, Philadelphia, has a truly elite running back on their roster.
Though Saquon Barkley technically outperformed Alvin Kamara in Week 3, he’s still one of the best running backs in the NFL and might just put up 200 all-purpose yards in Week 4 between his abilities as a rusher and gifts as a receiver. If Allen sees the stats and makes a concerted effort to attack the Falcons where they are weakest instead of letting Atlanta dictate the game, Kamara should have a very good showing.
2. The Saints’ defense gets to Kirk Cousins
Through the first three games of the 2024 season, the Saints have been one of the most prolific pass-rushing teams in the NFL, tied for the fifth-most sacks in the league alongside the Green Bay Packers, the Buffalo Bills, the Denver Broncos, and the Seattle Seahawks at 11.
Through the first three games of the 2024 season, the Falcons have been one of the least prolific pass-rushing teams in the NFL, somehow recording just three sacks versus three opponents while allowing opposing quarterbacks to rarely have to worry about being brought to the ground.
Now, for Carr, that is good news indeed after being under pressure for much of Week 3 with Fangio’s 5-2 front, but the same can’t be said for Kirk Cousins, as he’s likely going to be under pressure early and often in Week 4, especially if the Saints can get out early and force their opponents to have to roll the dice on risky chunk plays through the air.
With five players on the Saints having recorded at least .5 sacks on the season, with Bryan Bresee and Carl Granderson tied at three, Demario Davis at one, Chase Young holding .5, and cornerback Alontae Taylor somehow one of the most prolific rushers in the NFL today with 3.5 sacks on the season, New Orleans has a number of different ways to attack opposing quarterbacks and can even get around quality offensive lines to impact a quarterback’s play.
After being sacked five times so far this season despite having a pretty good offensive line, Cousins has found himself under pressure fairly often against three teams that are mediocre at best at rushing the passer; if the Saints come correct with a smart game plan and creative deployments of their front seven plus Taylor, they too may find themselves at an advantage from a passing standpoint.
3. The Saints prove Week 3 was a fluke with a Week 4 win
So, if the Saints can run wild on the Falcons’ defense and Carr puts together a cleaner game than Cousins in Week 4, New Orleans has a pretty good chance to leave Mercedes Benz Arena with another win on their record and prove once and for all that Week 3 was an exception, not the new rule?
Yes, despite recording the ultimate feel-good win in Week 2, the Falcons have proven that the Eagles really lost that game, as opposed to Cousins and company winning it, and in Week 3, their performance against the Chiefs clearly showcased that Morris’ defense can be beaten up with the right game plan. With two great runners, good receiving options, and a quarterback who can operate an offense at a high level, the Saints have the pieces in place to defeat the Falcons and right their ship before things spiral out of control.
