NFL Draft history suggests the Chiefs might’ve nailed their Nohl Williams pick

Draft. Williams had a strong college career and was a well-regarded prospect heading into the draft. Given the Chiefs' reputation for developing cornerbacks like Charvarius Ward and Jaylen Watson, many are excited about Williams’ potential in Kansas City.

But what does recent draft history tell us about the success rate of cornerbacks taken in this part of the draft?

This month, I’ve been reviewing all of Kansas City’s draft picks to examine the historical hit rates for players at the same position taken around the same spot. You can check out the results from the first three below, if you haven’t already:

• Josh Simmons / Late 1st round offensive tackles
• Omarr Norman-Lott / 2nd round defensive tackles
• Ashton Gillotte / Early 3rd round defensive ends

To find the hit rate for cornerbacks taken in a similar range as Nohl Williams, I looked at the ten draft classes from 2014 to 2023. Since it's too early to judge the 2024 class, this gave me a solid, recent ten-year sample. I then focused on cornerbacks selected between picks 75 and 95—a 21-pick span that captures the 10 picks before and after where Williams was taken.

From that range, I found 22 cornerbacks drafted. Here are the players, year by year:

2014:

• Dexter McDougal - New York Jets - pick 80
• Phillip Gaines - Kansas City Chiefs - pick 87

2015:

• P.J. Williams - New Orleans Saints - pick 78
• Alex Carter - Detroit Lions - pick 80
• Craig Mager - San Diego Chargers - pick 83

2016:

• Daryl Worley - Carolina Panthers - pick 77
• Kendall Fuller - Washington Commanders - pick 84
• Brandon Williams - Arizona Cardinals - pick 92

2017:

• Fabian Moreau - Washington Commanders - pick 81
• Shaquill Griffin - Seattle Seahawks - pick 90
• Jourdan Lewis - Dallas Cowboys - pick 92
• Cameron Sutton - Pittsburgh Steelers - pick 94

2018:

• Rashaan Gaulden - Carolina Panthers - pick 85

2019:

• David Long - Los Angeles Rams - pick 79
• Justin Layne - Pittsburgh Steelers - pick 83
• Jamel Dean - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - pick 94

2020:

• Michael Ojemunda - Denver Broncos - pick 77
• Cam Dantzler - Minnesota Vikings - pick 89

2021:

• Paulson Adebo - New Orleans Saints - pick 76

2022:

• Cordale Flott - New York Giants - pick 81
• Marcus Jones - New England Patriots - pick 85

2023:

• Riley Moss - Denver Broncos - pick 83

In my previous three hit rate breakdowns, I grouped players into two categories: "hits" and "busts." But since we’re now in a portion of the draft where hit rates are traditionally lower, I wanted to offer more nuance. For this post, I’ve used three categories:

• Miss – Players who didn’t stick in the league or failed to carve out a meaningful role
• NFL Contributor – Depth corners who may have started occasionally or played consistently on special teams
• Starter – Players who started for multiple seasons, even if not at a high level

Here is how I divided the 22 corners into those three categories:

Misses (45.4%):

• Dexter McDougal
• Phllip Gaines
• Craig Mager
• Brandon Williams
• Rashaan Gaulden
• David Long
• Justin Layne
• Cameron Dantzler
• Michael Ojemunda

NFL Contributors (18.2%):

• P.J. Williams
• Daryl Worley
• Cordale Flott
• Marcus Jones

Starters (36.4%):

• Kendall Fuller
• Fabian Moreau
• Shaquill Griffin
• Jourdan Lewis
• Cameron Sutton
• Jamel Dean
• Paulson Adebo
• Riley Moss

A few things stand out to me here. First, the most likely outcome based on this data is that Nohl Williams will be a miss. That’s simply the most common result. However, it’s also notable that there were twice as many starters as role players. In other words, players taken in this range tend to either become starters or miss entirely. Yes, a few became contributors, but 81.8% either made it as regular starters or didn’t make it at all.

The second thing worth highlighting is that the 36.4% hit rate for starters is significantly higher than the typical success rate for players taken in this range, which usually hovers around 20–30%, depending on how you define success. If you include contributors as hits, the success rate rises to 54.6 percent, basically double the average for this portion of the draft.

It should be noted that the list of starters taken in this range of the draft isn't exactly a who's who of elite NFL corners, so even if Nohl Williams adds his name to the list of players drafted in this range that went on to be regular starters in the NFL, Chiefs fans shouldn't expect elite All-Pro level play.

Still, when you factor in Steve Spagnuolo and Dave Merritt's success at developing corners as well as the above-average success of corners drafted in this range becoming starters, the Chiefs have to be encouraged about Williams' chances.