There is always one giant, glaring concern when any team faces the Boston Celtics. It is their "superpower," as Anthony Black put it. It overtakes every part of the gameplan.
The Celtics have bent the league's best defenses with their 3-point volume, shooting a league-high 48.2 attempts per game and 36.8 percent from three overall. Even in a 3-point heavier league, the Celtics led the league in 3-point makes per game (17.8) by nearly two more than the next team.
It is always a concern, especially for a poor shooting team like the Orlando Magic, to keep up with the 3-point shooting. It will be one of the central stories of this series.
Orlando, for its part, does well defending the 3-point line. The Magic gave up the fewest attempts per game in the league at 31.4 per game (more than three attempts fewer than the next team). The Celtics shot two of their five fewest 3-point attempts in a single game this year against the Magic—including a 17-for-37 showing in the Celtics' blowout win in January.
That only highlights how dangerous Boston's shooting can be. And the uphill climb Orlando has ahead of it.
But, while there is ample focus on how the Magic's defense matches up with the Celtics and how the Magic plan to limit that attack, there is another equally critical part of that coin.
It is the same part of the coin that has been a question for this Magic team throughout the season: How will the Magic's offense support the defense? How will the Magic crack this Celtics' defense?
That is not going to be an easy task either.
"They have a lot of size, athleticism, physicality out there at all positions," Anthony Black said after practice Thursday. "They have good one on one defenders. We have to move the ball and get back to the second and third side and attack from there. We trust in what we've got to go out and combat that."
Elite at defense too
The Boston Celtics finished second in the league in offensive rating, scoring 119.5 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is indeed very formidable.
But they are also one of the best defenses in the league. The Celtics gave up 110.1 points per 100 possessions, fourth in the league. They feature excellent guard defenders in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday and a solid rim protector in Kristaps Porzingis and a stalwart on the block in Al Horford.
The pressure their offense puts on teams to score certainly helps the defense too. Teams have to feel like they are trying to keep up and that increases the team's pace offensively. It takes them out of their game.
But Boston too is going to put the screws on teams defensively.
The Boston Celtics are second in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.2 percent, the Orlando Magic and their second-ranked defense are just ninth at 53.8 percent), seventh in opponent offensive rebound rate (28.3 percent, slightly behind Orlando's full season total of 28.0 percent) and third in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (34.7 percent) and 11th in 3-point attempts per game allowed (37.1 attempts per game).
With Boston's ability to switch and put size and strength on nearly every position, the team is also fourth in opponents' points in the paint per game at 46.2 points allowed per game (the Magic are third with 45.7 points allowed per game).
To say the least, Boston may not get the turnovers that Orlando's defense creates, but this is still a tough, disruptive defense that limits teams to one shot and takes advantage of miscues to create those devastating 3-pointers.
"They are top five in a lot of areas—their rim protection, how they switch, their isolation defense," coach Jamahl Mosley said after practice Thursday. "They don't allow you to create many advantages. You have to find the right advantage at the right time. You can't miss the opportunities when you have that advantage. Turning down shots is not something you want to look to do because they do a great job loading up. They do a great job of communicating with one another and finding where the holes are and where the gaps are."
The Magic's defense will get its licks on the Celtics' offense. Boston may find it harder to break through and score or get the same number of 3-point attempts it is accustomed to. With both teams looking to limit possessions, the Magic could have a window to stay in games.
But the biggest mystery will be whether the Magic can break through the Celtics' defense. Can the Magic make enough threes to keep the defense honest and keep up with the Celtics' shooting? Can Orlando simply score enough?
These have remained the questions facing Orlando throughout this season.
Improving offense
The only good news is that the Orlando Magic have been better during this run of play to close the season.
During their 12-6 run to end the season, the Magic have a 113.6 offensive rating, good for 21st in the league. They shot 36.2 percent from three, good for 17th in the league, during that timespan. That is at least a positive sign or a step in the right direction.
During that run, the Orlando Magic scored 111 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in a loss, 108 against the Cleveland Cavaliers and 108 against the Houston Rockets, all top-10 defenses. Then again, the Magic posted only 84 points in a loss to the Houston Rockets, 87 in a loss to the LA Clippers and 97 in a win against an undermanned Boston Celtics team.
The Magic will still have their struggles to score against elite defenses. And Orlando is preparing to face an elite defense.
How competitive this series is and whether the Magic can push or beat the Celtics will come down to Orlando's biggest weakness: Its ability to score consistently.
The Magic have put an emphasis on playing faster lately. That has helped the offense find a spark, if inconsistently. That will be key to keep the Celtics' defense in rotation. The Magic have to keep the ball moving and trust each other.
"A lot of just mindset," Jonathan Isaac said after practice on Thursday. "Xs and Os are obviously important. Concepts and being in the right place are all important. Walking into Boston with the mindset that we are fully capable with what we have to make this a series and play good basketball. We'll get more into the nitty gritty details as we move on, but just the mindset is big for us right now."
Orlando won the season series 2-1, but it does not tell anybody much of anything.
Both Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero missed the meeting in December and Wagner sat out the meeting in January with his torn oblique. Jayson Tatum sat out the December meeting and the April meeting.
Last year, Orlando went 1-2 against Boston with a runaway victory on Black Friday in the NBA In-Season Tournament. The Celtics have not won at the Kia Center since Oct. 22, 2022 (Paolo Banchero's second career game).
Banchero has career averages of 22.9 points per game against the Celtics in nine career games. Wagner averages 14.5 points per game in 11 matchups with Boston.
This team will have its work cut out for it. This series will be an uphill climb. But the team is playing better lately and Jonathan Isaac said the team feels like it has another level.
How steep that climb is will depend on how dialed in the Magic's offense can be and whether it can crack this Celtics defense.
