With the season-opening deadline fast approaching and the majority of their preseason games behind them, it’s time to take an educated guess as to what the Tampa Bay Lightning’s roster will look like when it kicks the season off against Carolina on Friday. A couple of injuries over the last week have clouded things a bit, but despite the exceptional play of some of the rookies, there aren’t likely to be too many surprises.
Currently, the skating wounded list consists of Luke Glendening, Mikey Eyssimont, and Gage Goncalves. None of the injuries seem to be long-term, and general manager Julien BriseBois would like to avoid using LTIR as much as possible to bank some salary cap room for roster tweaking later in the season.
There will be a couple of factors besides the strength of play that will affect the final decisions that Mr. BriseBois and the staff have to make to get to the right mix of players for the season. There are a few players still in camp that will need to clear waivers, and some of the rookies still playing will benefit more from increased ice time in Syracuse than playing seven or eight minutes a night in Tampa.
Unless the NHL grants an exception to the Lightning (and Nashville) due to the postponement of their preseason game, the season-opening roster has to be cap-compliant and submitted to the NHL by 5:00 PM EST on Monday. Chances are we’ll have an idea of who makes the Bolts roster a little earlier as any player that requires waivers to be sent to the AHL has to be placed on them by Sunday.
We’re going to assume that Mr. BriseBois isn’t going to make any late waiver claims or pull off a last-minute trade. It’s not completely off the rails to think he might do so, but in the past, in he’s been pretty married to the roster he constructed in the summer.
There are a couple of easy moves to pick out. The two players the Lightning recalled over the last two days (Dylan Duke and Gabriel Szturc) will be returned to Syracuse. Ethan Gauthier return to Drummondville to finish his junior career. The 19-year-old picked up an assist in three presason games but is a year away from impacting the roster.
While nothing has been made official, PuckPedia is reporting that the Lightning will release Logan Brown from his PTO, and he’ll sign an AHL deal with the Syracuse Crunch. Had he not been injured earlier in camp, there is an excellent chance he would have earned a contract. Now, he’ll work to get healthy in Syracuse with the knowledge that he can sign an NHL deal with any team in the league.
Matt Tomkins cleared waivers today and was assigned to Syracuse. So that leaves Conor Geekie, Max Groshev, Jesse Ylonen, Max Crozier, Steve Santini, and Declan Carlile as the players on the bubble. Jack Finley and Gabriel Fortier as still technically on the training camp roster, but they will be out with injuries until at least December. So let’s take a look at who we think end up on the team.
Goaltenders:
This is by far the easiest category to figure out. The Lightning are only going to carry two goaltenders, and we had a good sense of who they would be from the beginning of camp. Andrei Vasilevskiy will be the starter and play the bulk of the games. He’s healthy and ready to go after missing the first few months last season. With a full summer to get ready, he has looked sharp in the preseason.
After a rocky start in the preseason, Jonas Johansson finished strong with 43 saves on 45 shots over his last two appearances. The quad injury that shortened his season last year appears to be well behind him.
Defense:
This one is pretty easy as well as the top four are locked in with Victor Hedman, JJ Moser, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak. Darren Raddysh will be the third right-side defenseman. As for the remaining spot, it’s likely down to Emil Lilleberg and Nick Perbix. Lilleberg is the natural left-side player, but Perbix has played on his off-side in the past. Santini will have to clear waivers, but that should be a formality.
Crozier and Carlile are both waivers exempt and will likely be sent to Syracuse soon. However, depending on other moves, Mr. BriseBois might need a little cap space, and, in that case, Carlile could be on the opening night roster as he makes $100,000 less than Lilleberg (who is also waivers exempt).
Forwards:
This is where it gets fun. Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul, Zemgus Girgensons, and Mitchell Chaffee are locks for the roster. Conor Sheary is going to make it as well (sorry Sheary non-believers). Cam Atkinson is also going to be on the roster as well.
The status of Mikey Eyssimont and Luke Glendening is still up in the air, which definitely clouds the waters a bit. Both have been skating in practice, but haven’t been cleared for game participation just yet. Goncalves was in a red non-contact jersey after suffering an upper-body injury last week.
If all things were equal, there is a good chance that Connor Geekie and Max Groshev did enough to earn a spot on the roster. Unfortunately, things aren’t equal and both players are waivers-exempt while a couple of their teammates are not. Would Jesse Ylonen get claimed if he was put on waivers? Probably not, but that might not be a risk Mr. BriseBois is willing to take.
Ylonen has played pretty well in his four preseason games with positive numbers in shot-share (54.26 CF%) and expected goals (52.85 xGF%) so it’s not like he’s being handed the job. He’ll bring speed and skill to the fourth line. Groshev has provided a little more offense with an iXG of 0.44 to Ylonen’s 0.03 at 5v5, but has been upside down on possession numbers. With the focus on lowering chances against and keeping the puck out of the net, the brass could go with the strong defensive player, and that’s been Ylonen so far.
As for Geekie. Yes, we all want him to make the team, but it’s probably for the best that he starts in Syracuse and then forces the Bolts call him up when he goes on a 2013-14 Nikita Kucherov-like tear in the AHL. As good as Geekie has been throughout the rookie showcase and training camp, he still needs a little more seasoning before becoming a permanent fixture in the Lightning’s line-up.
Due to his lack of NHL experience, Goncalves is more likely to clear waivers than Ylonen, and that will probably be the deciding factor should he be healthy enough to play. Should any of the forwards get hurt or falter early in the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if Gage is one of the first forwards recalled.
Our look at the roster and possible lines for the Lightning on opening night:
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Sheary
Cam Atkinson – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Jesse Ylonen
Extra: Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – JJ Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Darren Raddysh
Extra: Nick Perbix
Goaltenders:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johanson
This would give the Lightning a 22-skater roster and leave them $730,000 under the cap according to PuckPedia. If Glendening or Eyssimont are not ready for opening night, they could play the first game with an 11/7 rotation. As discussed below, they could also swap Carlile for Lilleberg and call up another forward that has a cap hit under $825,000.
