Pierre-Luc Dubois Poised for a Resurgence with the Caps

The Capitals new center brings a lot of perceived baggage along with a big contract, but also possesses size and skill to make the Capitals a better team. His underlying numbers point to a resurgence from PLD in Washington, if the Capitals can help him realized his full potential. 

Washington Capitals GM Brian Maclellan had stated a number of times last season that he hoped to do a “reboot” on the fly and avoid a total rebuild in order for the Caps to remain competitive while Alex Ovechkin chases the Wayne Gretzky All-Time goals record. “We’re trying to thread a needle, and that’s very hard to do,” he said back in March.

He said it again in early July after he had pulled off a series of trades and free agent signings that remade the Capitals roster. Gone were Darcy Kuemper, Nick Jensen, Beck Malenstyn—along with a couple of draft picks—arriving in DC are Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy, Andrew Mangiapane, and Logan Thompson. Those moves swapped out players in their mid-thirties for players in their mid-twenties, while adding skill and speed to a roster that desperately needed it. These moves were Maclellan's last hurrah as GM of the Washington Capitals before he passed the baton to Assistant GM Chris Patrick, not before GMBM retooled the shed.

What may one day be called "The Great Caps Reboot" started on June 19th, Maclellan traded goalie Darcy Kuemperto the LA Kings for center Pierre-Luc Dubois. Dubois was a 60+ point scorer three times in his career. But the Caps will be Dubois’ third team in three years, who has seven years left on his contract that pays him $8.5 million per year through 2031, and only scored forty points in his first season in LA. It seemed like Maclellan may had reached for an underperfomring and overpaid problem. But digging a bit deeper into the numbers tells a different story. If the Capitals are right and make some adjustments to his playing time and responsibilities, Dubois could end up making the Caps front office look pretty smart.

Pierre-Luc Dubois was the third overall pick in the 2016 NHL draft. He is penciled in to start the year as the Caps second line center. Based on his age and skill set, his best years should ahead of him. The Caps needed more skill players and needed to bolster their center depth. Dubois addresses both areas of need and gives the Caps a very talented and productive 2C, with the potential to become a true number one center. But Dubois has a reputation of being difficult, having been traded three times since 2021 and brings with him a contract that pay him $8.5 million over the next seven years. Is Dubois overpaid? Dubois is being paid a reasonable contract falls pretty in line when compared to other 2Cs in the NHL the same age and with similar point production.

Elias Pettersson, Mikko Rantanen, and Leon Draisaitl will be free agents after the 24-25 season and are set to make over $14 million per season, which make Dubois’ contract seem less a liability, and more like a reasonable contract, especially in year three or four as salaries in the league continue to climb. A trade for one of those three players would cost Washington valuable prospects like Ryan Leonard, or Ivan Miroshnichenko, neither of whom the Caps don’t want to give up. Or they could wait it out and hope that one or two of those guys made it to free agency next summer and sign someone, but the price will be astronomical.

The first thing that jumps out are the point totals. Dubois finished the year with only 40 points, after back-to-back 60+ point seasons in Winnipeg, scoring 19 points on the power play in 2021-22 and 23 in 2022-23. The Kings paid a hefty price to acquire a talented center only to stick him on the third line, where he averaged 15:42 per game, while not using him more on the power play. The Kings just failed to use him the way he Winnipeg did the previsou two season. Kings GM Rob Blake admitted that he should have tried harder do at the press conference after the trade.

I don't know anyone with the Kings, but buyers remorse is a real thing. It happens. Brian Maclellan and Chris Patrick, along with the rest of the Caps staff, saw enough to be willing to take on Dubois' contract. They saw something. History shows that when given that extra time on the ice, Dubois' point totals increase. The Caps seem to have noticed this and decided to pull the trigger on a deal. If they want Dubois to improve and become their top pivot, Dubois needs to be on the ice 18-20 minutes a night and be a staple on with the extra man.

*covid shortened seasons

Players with Dubois size, skill, and speed don’t grow on trees. The Caps braintrust are smart and organized and feel they can help Dubois realize his full potential under bench boss Spencer Carberry. Based on the coaching job he did last season getting the Caps into the first round of the playoffs with a roster full of againg veterans and inexperienced young players, led by Charlie LIndgren's break out season, there is reason to hope down on Fun Street. Granted, the Caps are taking a risk. But Dubois is only twenty-six.

It's certainly possible that Dubois can become the 70-80 point per season top-line center that every team covets. If Dubois flourishes in DC scores sixty-plus points a season, that $8.5 million would look a lot more like a bargain when compared to the mega-contracts that Pettersson, Rantanen, and Draisaitl will ink next summer, especially a few a couple years. Trading Kuemper, a 34-year-old goaltender with his name on the Stanley Cup for, Dubois--a 26 year-old potential top-line center who top center potential--could end up being quite the steal for the Caps, and a chance for Dubois to prove Brian Maclellan and Chris Patrick right.