Point-spread prediction for NFL Week 4 game that Jets 'should win'

It's a Week 4 game that the New York Jets are "supposed to win," but not everything that is supposed to happen actually happens in the league where they play for pay.

With the Denver Broncos and rookie quarterback Bo Nix set to visit MetLife Stadium on September 29, the Jets opened as a 7.5-point betting favorite over their AFC opponent according to multiple sportsbooks. The line makes sense when considering home field advantage as well as the Jets' advantage when it comes to roster talent. 

The Sporting News writer Bill Bender has already unveiled his Week 4 game picks, and he's predicting a third straight win for Gang Green. Bettors beware as the projected margin of victory is within the point spread.

From NFL picks, predictions for Week 4:

• Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS 

There is going to be a lot written about Aaron Rodgers, Sean Payton, and Nathaniel Hackett this week. Denver has allowed just 15.3 points per game through three weeks, and they have an excellent pass rush led by Jonathan Cooper. Aaron Rodgers has improved with each week, and he has taken just five sacks in three games. Bo Nix avoided turnovers in Week 3. Will he do that in Week 4 against a Jets' defense that had seven sacks in Week 3? 

Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17

— Bill Bender

The quarterback battle heavily tilts in the Jets' favor this week. While the Broncos start a rookie at the most important position on the field, New York has a future Hall-of-Fame field general with 480 touchdown passes to his credit. 

The 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers has thrown five touchdown passes to one interception while posting a 103.1 passer rating, which is third in the AFC behind only Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. He'll face a stiff test in Week 4, going up against a Denver defense that ranks third in the NFL in yards allowed (259.3).

"We got Denver, who's coming off a nice win against the undefeated Buccaneers. Just watching them, I feel like defensively they throw a lot of different things at you," said Rodgers during his weekly Pat McAfee Show appearance on Tuesday. "They've been playing really well. They gave up seven points against the Buccaneers in Week 3. They've been playing well. They're going to be riding high."

Meanwhile, Nix showed moxie in an impressive Week 3 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He threw for 216 yards and added 47 yards and a touchdown on the ground.  

The Jets and the Broncos will kick off at 1 p.m. on Sunday in East Rutherford.