Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold started off the season hot but has cooled off in recent weeks.
And while it appears that any trade talk involving Matthew Stafford — the Los Angeles Rams QB against whom Darnold will square off on Thursday Night Football on October 24 — is merely conjecture at this point, there is valid reason to question Minnesota’s future at the position beyond this year.
Dan Graziano of ESPN examined quarterbacks who could end up on the free agent market come March 2025 and included Darnold’s name among those successful signal callers who may, nevertheless, find themselves on the move ahead of next season.
“The other situation to watch — not that it’s a major surprise — is Minnesota, where Sam Darnold is having a career renaissance, but 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy should be healed from his knee injury in time to start the 2025 season,” Graziano wrote Wednesday. “What kind of deal could Darnold get on the open market if his season continues the way it has gone so far?”
Sam Darnold Could Attract Big Money on Free Agent Market
Michael Ginnitti, managing editor of the salary cap-centric website Spotrac, predicted that Darnold could go for as high as $40 million annually during on the October 3 episode of the “The Spotrac Podcast.”
“Four years, $160 million to the Las Vegas Raiders,” Ginnitti said. “It’s cap-adjusted Baker [Mayfield].”
Mayfield signed a three-year deal worth $100 million last offseason to remain with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If Darnold can command that kind of money, it may not make sense for the Vikings to keep him. And because of that, Darnold’s performance over the rest of this season presents something of a double-edged sword to Minnesota.
On the one hand, the team is 5-1 and looks to be a serious contender in the NFC. If Darnold keeps playing well and things break right for the Vikings, a deep playoff run isn’t out of the question. But that outcome would probably mean Darnold prices himself out of Minnesota, as the team just spent a No. 10 overall pick on McCarthy in April.
If Darnold stumbles — as he has somewhat over his past two games, producing just 438 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs on 36-of-58 passing — he will remain more affordable on a possible extension, but it will hurt the Vikings’ chances of competing at the highest level this year.
Vikings ‘Vibes’ Shifting on QB Sam Darnold
Talk coming out of the Vikings organization on Darnold has shifted somewhat over the past few weeks, according to columnist Michael Rand of the Star Tribune.
“Vibes are unscientific and unspecific, but the vibes on Darnold feel like they are shifting,” Rand wrote on Wednesday. “You hear Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell talk more frequently lately about missed opportunities on offense, many of which circle back to Darnold.”
Darnold has never been a world beater at the NFL level since the New York Jets selected him No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft. It appeared he’d shed some of that reputation as a legitimate MVP candidate through the first month of the season, though that buzz has cooled off almost completely.
The Vikings should get tight end T.J. Hockenson back by no later than Week 9, which will transform the offense to a degree that may help Darnold recapture some of the magic of his first month in Minnesota.
That said, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Darnold is playing under a new team’s banner come 2025 — whether he finishes the current campaign strong or not.
