Red Sox Trade Prediction: Jarren Duran to Headline Deal For Frontline Starter

With the Boston Red Sox in the market for a frontline starting pitcher, the team could avoid parting with any of their “Big Four” top prospects to acquire one. But to do that, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, they will need to deal their 2024 breakout outfield star Jarren Duran.

“Duran could certainly headline any package for a front-line starter and it’s likely the Red Sox could include one or two prospects at the backend of their top 20 but avoid dealing any of their top four,” McCaffrey wrote on Monday.

Those top four Red Sox farm system prospects, none of whom have yet seen any time at the Major League level, are led by 20-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony, rated by Baseball America as the number one prospect in baseball, making the North Palm Beach, Florida, native the first Red Sox prospect to achieve that distinction since Andrew Benentendi in 2017.

The others are shortstop Marcelo Mayer, second baseman Kristian Campbell and catcher Kyle Teel. With the Red Sox rebuilding their farm system under previous head of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, the organization has been extremely reluctant to consider including any of those four players in trade packages.

That means that to acquire a frontline starter, the Red Sox will almost certainly need to deal from their Major League roster, making Duran a leading candidate to be dealt.

The Red Sox, or any team that acquires Duran, have the 28-year-old under team control for four more seasons. Duran is currently under a one-year contract for 2025, at a salary of $4.11 million. He remains eligible for arbitration in each of the following three seasons.

The Red Sox could use Duran to headline a deal for White Sox starter Garret Crochet, or any other frontline starting pitcher, according to McCaffrey. “Trading Duran would be painful and a loss for the lineup, but if the Red Sox could acquire a No. 1 starter, it might be worth it,” the Athletic writer added.

If not Crochet, the Red Sox could use Duran and a package of lower-level prospects as bait to acquire another top starter. According columnist Justin Leger of NBC Sports Boston, the next target on their list could be Florida Marlins righty Sandy Alcantra, a two-time All Star on the 2022 National League Cy Young winner.

Alcantra would be a riskier acquisition. He missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, after suffering a rough year in 2023 when he posted a 4.14 ERA and allowed 22 home runs in 184 2/3 inning pitched, with a mediocre 1.213 WHIP.

“Perhaps that will make the price tag low enough that the Red Sox wouldn’t have to part ways with one of their prized top-four prospects to get him,” Leger wrote. “But if the Red Sox believe he still has his 2022 Cy Young stuff, they should be ringing the Marlins’ phones off the hook.”

The 29-year-old Dominican Republic native is due a $17.3 million salary in each of 2025 and 2026. His contract also carries a club option for 2027 at $21 million.