One reason Joe fully enjoys Warren Sharp’s work is Sharp’s patience to dig for minutia that actually turns out to have a big impact.
Most people figure out strength of schedule by just looking at teams’ win-loss records from the previous season. Sharp rails that this is faulty logic because with so much roster turnover, rarely are teams the same from year to year.
One major element in Sharp’s season-win calculations is what he calls “rest edge.” It’s the amount of days teams get to rest between games. For example, teams with more Monday night or Thursday night or Wednesday/Christmas games often have less “rest edge” they have. Per Sharp, if you have more rest entering a game than your opponent, you’ll have more success
Sharp spells out this theory right here.
He is a big believer that down the stretch of the season, the rest edge adds up on players’ bodies.
So Sharp has determined the Bucs have the eighth-worst “rest edge” for the 2024 season at -7.
So this is something to keep in mind if it appears the Bucs are gassed in December. Fortunately, the Bucs have a late bye, Week 11. That could help.
But “rest edge” is like any other data. It’s use is limited. Last year, the team with the worst “rest edge” was the 49ers at -20. They tied for the second-best record in the league. The Bucs were -2 last season and had a good year.
The Jets, Bears, Commandoes and Titans has the biggest rest edge last season and all struggled.
