Hope springs eternal in the offseason, which can lead to some inflated expectations. But what are some realistic returns for the Bengals in 2025? This series will look at various key Bengals players and what fans should expect production-wise this season.
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First up in the series: Jermaine Burton.
A Bumpy Rookie Season
To describe Burton’s rookie season as ‘bumpy’ might be the understatement of the year. While it sounds harsh, the numbers show Burton’s inaugural campaign in Cincinnati was HISTORICALLY bad. Since 2003, there have only been seven rookie wide receivers drafted in the first 100 picks to play in at least 10 games, but account for five or fewer receptions. Those seven players:
If you tweak the search to look at those receivers with 15 or fewer targets (as opposed to looking at receptions), you see a couple of success stories but the list isn’t much more promising overall:
In short, having a receiver taken in the top-100 picks of the draft and be as uninvolved as Burton is rare, and historically has been an indictment on the player’s second year as well.
What Should We Expect in 2025?
I recently put a poll out on Twitter and was surprised with the results. While fans should be pleased to hear that Burton is finally acting the part of a professional and seems to have his head on straight, the expectations for his production in year two may be a bit high:
Let’s take a look at the second list from above. Over the last two decades, 17 receivers have played in as many games as Burton did as a rookie yet struggled to see many targets. Of those 17, just four had more than 25 catches in their second season, and only once in the past decade. Those four also represent the clear outliers:
- Earl Bennett, 2009: 16 games, 88 targets, 54 receptions, 717 yards
- Eric Decker, 2011: 16 games, 96 targets, 44 receptions, 612 yards
- Markus Wheaton, 2014: 16 games, 86 targets, 53 receptions, 644 yards
- Bryan Edwards, 2021: 16 games, 59 targets, 34 receptions, 571 yards
The average second-year stat line for the 13 others:
- 10 games, 12 targets, 7 receptions, 86 yards
Is there historical precedent for a receiver like Burton putting it all together in their second season? Yes. However, the odds are slim.
Considering the pecking order for targets in Cincinnati is fairly concrete for 1-3, the competition among Andrei Iosivas, Chase Brown and Burton remains tight. While Burton should improve upon his disappointing rookie campaign, expectations should be tempered for 2025.
