Since the conclusion of the 2025 NFL Draft, all of the buzz surrounding the Pittsburgh Steelers has been about Aaron Rodgers. The 41-year-old quarterback still hasn't inked a deal with the team, and fans are starting to wonder if it will happen. But as the Rodgers saga drags on, one major storyline getting lost in the shuffle is the contract talks between the Steelers and T.J. Watt.
Watt has been seeking a new contract extension... and it's easy to figure out why. Since signing his last deal just before the start of the 2021 season, Watt led the league in sacks twice while earning First-Team All-Pro honors two times and being named the AP Defensive Player of the Year.
Now, the superstar edge rusher is entering a contract season and recently watched Myles Garrett reset the market with the biggest contract from a defensive player we've ever seen. Unfortunately, the Steelers are late to the party, and the price tag on a new extension has never been higher.
The market is the market. Based on Garrett's contract extension at $40 million per season, we can get an accurate estimate of what Watt will earn on his next extension. But if the Steelers really want to play hardball, they own more leverage than anyone cares to talk about.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could stick it to T.J. Watt with three years of contract control
Because T.J. Watt is entering the final year of his deal, most would assume the Pittsburgh Steelers need to get him signed to an extension before the 2025 season. However, there's another route the team could threaten their All-Pro edge rusher with if contract talks go south.
I want to preface by saying that I think this would be a poor PR move that could potentially damage future relationships with players and agents. But if the Steelers really wanted to retain Watt beyond the 2025 season, they could slap the franchise tag on the veteran.
You don't hear of teams using the franchise tag on All-Pros often. Typically, organizations will do everything in their power to appease their best players, which includes paying them market value. We can assume the Steelers will eventually do the same, but it's hard to blame them for their hesitation.
If the front office thinks that Watt, who turns 31 years old early in 2025, is in the early stages of decline, you can understand the holdup of throwing him $40-plus million per season with the first few years fully guaranteed. Even with the ever-growing NFL salary cap, Watt's cap number, based on his estimated new money average, would eat up a significant number of the team's total cap space.
On the other hand, slapping the franchise tag on Watt would deal a fraction of the damage to the Steelers' finances. Based on the terminology still being used for franchise tags, Watt would be classified as a linebacker. Thus, the estimated franchise tag cost in 2026 would be $28.6 million, per Over the Cap—a fraction of what he would otherwise earn on a new extension.
But that's not the only thing the Steelers could do. If they so choose, Omar Khan and the front office could franchise tag Watt up to three times, according to the latest rules posted by Sports Illustrated. While each tag comes at 120 percent of the cost of the previous tag, this would still result in cap savings for the Steelers.
For example, if the Steelers tagged Watt for a second time in 2027, his fully guaranteed cap number would come in around $34 million, based on the current outlook. If the Steelers did the unthinkable and tagged Watt for the third and final time in 2028, this number could still prove to be a savings compared to what he would otherwise earn in an extension. And you have to consider that, three years from now, edge rusher contracts will continue to soar to new heights.
This means that, if the Steelers choose to play bully ball, they could have four years of control of T.J. Watt's playing situation beginning now (his contract year in 2025 plus three franchise tags). If this were to happen, the Steelers could retain Watt until he's about to enter his age-35 season in 2029. And by that time, they may not want him around anyway.
The Steelers would never treat a superstar like this
There isn't a chance in the world the Pittsburgh Steelers would risk being the supervillain by taking a PR hit of this magnitude, and if they exercised dictatorship over a future Hall of Famer like this, it would force the NFL to rewrite rules to protect veteran players.
I can assure you the Steelers won't play hardball like this with T.J. Watt's contract, but strictly from a financial perspective, it would make sense to exercise ultimate control of the situation, lock up Watt for less money than he would get on an extension in the final years of his contract.
