The Tampa Bay Lightning were the class of the National Hockey League in the early 2020s, advancing to back-to-back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals between 2020-22 — and winning two of them. But it’s been nothing but disappointment since, with the Bolts losing in the first round of two consecutive Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Lightning were on the wrong side of history two years ago, allowing the Toronto Maple Leafs to win their first (and only) series in two decades. A couple of months ago, they fell victim to a Florida Panthers team that won its first ever championship in 2024. The Atlantic Division is a gauntlet, and it’s not going to be easy to get out of the first two rounds anytime soon. There are a ton of competitive teams, including the Leafs, Panthers and Boston Bruins, with a few others looking to snap lengthy postseason droughts.
Tampa Bay also looks a lot different from last year, after heart and soul captain Steven Stamkos signed with the Nashville Predators, and key top pairing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev was traded to the Utah Hockey Club. But general manager Julien BriseBois plugged those holes by adding the big fish of free agency in Jake Guentzel, while also adding a few depth pieces.
Will it be enough to get a new-look Bolts team back to championship contention in 2024-25 and beyond? Only time will tell, but at first glance, this still looks like an excellent club. Here are a couple of bold predictions for the Lightning ahead of another NHL season.
Guentzel, Kucherov, Point lead Lightning to top-3 finish in Atlantic Division
Stamkos almost always centered the second line while he was on the Lightning’s roster, allowing the team to roll out two elite lines. But there were times when, along with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, he helped to form one of the league’s best lines.
As Guentzel is a left winger, it’s almost certain that he will immediately jump onto the top line with Point as the anchor and Kucherov at RW. And that is as good a line as you will see in the National. Kucherov just put up an absolutely ridiculous 44 goals and 144 points, which still wasn’t good enough to beat Nathan MacKinnon for the Hart Trophy. MacKinnon was extremely deserving, but goes to show just how good the best players in the world are.
And Point was no slouch either, amassing 46 goals and 90 points of his own. Adding Guentzel, who himself scored 77 points in 67 regular-season contests, Tampa Bay’s top line is an absolute behemoth. Guentzel is nearly five years younger than Stamkos, and probably has a bit more in the tank at this point in his career.
All that to say, the superstar core should help the Bolts secure a top three spot in the Atlantic Division, which wasn’t the case in 2023-24. Tampa finished four points back of the Leafs, earning them a brutal Round 1 matchup with the Panthers. If that line can mesh well together, expect the Bolts to be fighting for a top spot in the division all season long.
And that will be especially true if star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy can bounce back in 2024-25.
Andrei Vasilevskiy bounces back, wins 40 games
There was a time not too long ago when Vasilevskiy was the undisputed best goaltender in the NHL. That title now probably belongs to another Russian in Igor Shesterkin, especially after Vasi had the worst regular-season of his career.
Coming off back surgery, the 30-year-old managed just a 2.90 goals-against average and .900 save percentage, both career worsts. That is saying a ton about a goaltender who has been consistently excellent, but his play certainly affected the team. He also struggled in the postseason, managing a disappointing 3.22 GAA and .897 SV%. That is a concerning trend, as in the 2023 postseason against the Leafs he was even worse, with a 3.56 and .875, respectively.
But with a full offseason of training this summer and presuming he is 100 percent healthy heading into training camp, expect that Vasilevskiy will bounce back and improve on those numbers in 2024-25. If he can, the Lightning should again be competing for a top spot in the Eastern Conference, rather than settling for a wildcard slot.
Lightning win at least a round for first time since 2022 Stanley Cup Final run
It’s no secret that the Lightning aren’t the team they once were. Like most Stanley Cup champions, the squad has lost multiple key pieces, including Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat and Ross Colton, among others. On paper, they’ll have a tough time competing for another championship.
But the Lightning still boast a superstar core, led by Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman and now Guentzel. They still have one of, if not the best coaches in the world in Jon Cooper. And most importantly, the top players know how to win.
Although it’s going to be difficult to come out of the Atlantic Division, if everything goes right for this team, they should at least be able to avoid a wildcard finish. And with the Panthers getting worse, and the Leafs and Bruins projecting around the same, the division is wide open.
It’ll certainly be intriguing to see how the division shapes up next April, especially as teams like the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings are desperate to snap their postseason droughts. But if we’re being bold, let’s say that the Bolts turn back the clock, winning at least one round in 2025. And, like usual, this will be a team that nobody wants to see in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
