As a team overall this year, the Chicago Cubs have been pretty amazing. Their biggest problem, though, has been their inconsistency from the starting pitching position. Chicago has the 18th-best starting pitching ERA at 4.34. They have been plagued by injuries to many of their top players. This has left them with many difficult decisions, putting some guys in positions that they aren’t totally used to. With just over 50 games left, they must settle in and find their footing to succeed in the playoffs. Who are the best guys for the job?
The Ideal Cubs Rotation for the Rest of This Season
The Top Guys
Although as a whole, the Cubs’ rotation has been shaky, their top two guys have been excellent. It is clear their number one and number two starters down the stretch will be Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Boyd has been excellent this year with a 2.47 ERA in 123 2/3 IP. He’s also struck out 110 and conjured a 1.059 WHIP. Chicago signed him to a two-year $29 million deal and is getting exactly what they wanted out of him. Additionally, Boyd’s pitching run value is amazing as it’s in the 94th percentile at 15. He’s totaled 14 quality starts and an 11-4 record this season. Overall, the Cubs could not ask for much better than Matthew Boyd.
Their second guy has been almost as good as Boyd this year. Imanaga has a 3.25 ERA in 83 innings pitched with a 1.036 WHIP. Imanaga missed some time early in the year with a hamstring strain, but has been just as good since coming back. Although he has had a few blowup starts, he has been mostly consistent the last two years. He was unbelievable in his rookie year last year and has been only slightly less impressive this year. But, in the playoffs, Imanaga would be excellent to have as a number two starter.
The Middle of the Pack
Chicago has shuffled around pitchers between the middle and the back end of the rotation all year. The two guys who should be their number three and four starters for the rest of the year are Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon. Horton is a 23-year-old in his rookie year and has grown tremendously. In 13 starts, he holds a 3.42 ERA and a 5-3 record. He made his debut on May 10th and started just below average, but in his last three starts, he has a 0.00 ERA in 17 innings pitched. His one downside is that the most innings he’s pitched in his professional career are 88 innings, and he’s already pitched 73 2/3 innings this year. If he can keep up his elite pitching down the stretch, he will be an excellent 3/4 starter in the playoffs.
Taillon has not pitched to the best stats this season, but has shown flashes. He has a 4.44 ERA in 95 1/3 IP, but he hasn’t pitched since June 29th due to a calf strain. He is rehabbing right now in Triple-A Iowa and is expected back soon. This is his third year with the Cubs, and he has been just about average. While he isn’t going to be perfect every start, he is easily capable of 6+ innings of scoreless pitching, which is perfect for the 3/4 spot in the rotation.
The Back End Pitcher
Chicago has a few options for the final spot in the rotation. Between Colin Rea, Michael Soroka, and Javier Assad , one of these guys deserves the spot. Rea was placed in the rotation following injuries earlier in the year and has been decent. He has a 4.25 ERA this year, but would fit better as a long reliever in the bullpen. On the same note, Javier Assad would fit nicely in the bullpen for Chicago. In 2024, he had a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts and 147 innings. Unfortunately, he hasn’t pitched in the majors this year due to an oblique strain. He has also started rehabbing in Triple-A Iowa and is expected back soon. Because of this, he would fit better as a long relief pitcher in the bullpen, at least for now.
That leaves one guy for the final starting role in the Cubs rotation, and that is Michael Soroka. Soroka was acquired from the Nationals just before the trade deadline. Soroka is interesting because his 4.87 ERA in 16 starts this year is less than ideal. But, he has an amazing xERA and xBA at 3.33 and .218, respectively. Adding on to that, he is going from the Nationals, who have the 29th-ranked defense in the league, to the Cubs, who have the 2nd-ranked defense. This is a huge change, and it looks like playing for the Cubs is going to warrant much better results. So, it won’t hurt for the Cubs to try him in the fifth spot of the rotation.
