The Chicago Cubs sit four games over .500 with 18 left to play, but their relative success this season is no thanks to their hitting.
The Cubs’ bats have seriously wasted a great season from their pitching staff in 2024, despite the team’s recent success. They have won 19 of their last 30 games, briefly re-entering the Wild Card picture, but they remain five games back of a postseason spot.
That’s a large deficit to make up this late in the season.
This is not the season Chicago expected. In fact, many thought the Cubs would win the NL Central, including several of us here at Just Baseball.
Yet, as the season went on, it became clear the Cubs were not the team they were expected to be.
What exactly went wrong in 2024? Well, there have been plenty of problems, but the team’s lack of success has a lot more to do with hitting rather than pitching.
The Cubs’ Pitching Has Dazzled in 2024
As mentioned, the Cubs have been excellent on the mound this season. Their rotation has been a thing of beauty. For one thing, the Cubs have two aces on their team in Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga.
With those two followed by Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon, the Cubs have a solid top four in the rotation. Their fifth starter spot has been iffy all year with Jordan Wicks getting injured twice, but still, the starting rotation has usually given the Cubs a chance to win.
Steele, Imanaga, Assad, and Taillon have a 3.20 ERA through a combined 559.1 innings pitched this season. These four pitchers have carried the rotation all year, and the Cubs are 56-43 when one of them takes the mound.
With these four pitchers serving up the backbone of the Cubs rotation heading into next season as well, there is plenty of reason for excitement.
Furthermore, the starting rotation is not the only strength of the Cubs’ pitching staff. Their bullpen has been able to back them up. They started the season off on the wrong foot, but have been lights out since June.
Porter Hodge (1.82 ERA), Jorge Lopez (2.19 ERA), Tyson Miller (2.60 ERA) and Drew Smyly (2.29 ERA) have all been great in that span. The Cubs could use a lockdown closer, but regardless, their pitching is not the reason for the struggles.
The Chicago Cubs’ Hitting Struggles in 2024
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – APRIL 01: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Chicago Cubs at bat against the Milwaukee Brewers during the ninth inning at Wrigley Field on April 01, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Chicago Cubs have not been hitting the ball well as a team for most of the season.
On the year, Chicago has the 11th-lowest slugging percentage, the 11th-fewest home runs, and the 11th-lowest hard-hit percentage. They only recently rose out of the bottom half of MLB in runs scored per game.
To their credit, the Cubs do a good job taking their walks, but overall, their hitting has really let them down. After being shut out on Friday, the Cubs are now tied for the second most times being shut out in MLB (as of Sept. 6).
The Cubs Have Been Hitting Much Better Lately
Lately, however, the Cubs have been very good with their bats. Since August 1, they are batting .259 with a .769 OPS and 116 extra-base hits, and they have scored 196 runs in those 34 games. They have also stolen 41 bases while being caught just seven times.
On a very basic level, the Cubs have been one of the best offensive teams in the sport for the past six weeks. Now, they have played against many below-average opponents during this time (including the Pirates, Nationals, and Marlins), but it is still a good sign that they have been able to put up so many runs.
Specifically, it’s a good sign that the Cubs are getting a lot of production from some players who had been struggling earlier in the season.
Dansby Swanson is the most notable of those players. Since the beginning of August, the star shortstop is batting .292 with an .850 OPS. He has slugged five of his 14 home runs and recorded 26 of his 58 RBI in this span.
His barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity have all been good since then. The Cubs needed this earlier in the season, but it is good to see it happening now.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is another player that has really stepped up. In that same time frame as Swanson, PCA is batting .319 with a .908 OPS, five home runs, and 23 runs scored. He has been giving the Cubs the spark they need at the bottom of the order.
His defense will always be phenomenal, but PCA turns into a superstar when his hitting is there.
The Cubs have managed to keep their playoff hopes alive with this recent surge at the plate. However, they still trail the Mets by five games. With just 18 games left in the season, the Cubs would have to go on an incredible winning streak to get back in it.
It could just be too little too late for the Northsiders.
What Should the Cubs Do To Fix This Problem in the Offseason?
Needless to say, the Cubs will need to improve their roster to contend in 2025.
They could go after someone like Corbin Burnes to truly lock down that starting rotation. However, Chicago really has to solidify the back end of their bullpen. A good closer would go a long way for this team. Porter Hodge has done enough to throw his hat in the ring for that role, but it would not hurt to sign a more proven arm in free agency.
All that said, the biggest problem this season was always the Cubs’ hitting. More specifically, they just have not hit for enough power to be competitive most of the time. They need someone to come in and hit those home runs at Wrigley Field.
Ian Happ is currently the only Cub with more than 20 home runs. Seiya Suzuki will no doubt get to 20 home runs, but the rest of the roster could stay below that number.
The Chicago Cubs desperately need someone to come in and make a difference in the middle of the order next season. Pete Alonso is one big name who could do that. Whoever the Cubs add this winter, it has to be a power bat.
