When the 2024 NFL regular season schedule came out, we knew how good it looked for Jared Goff and his noteworthy indoor/outdoor splits. The Detroit Lions would play one outdoor game before December before back-to-back outdoor games in Week 16 (at Chicago Bears) and Week 17 (at San Francisco 49ers).
As usual this year, it has been a challenge to be a fantasy football manager with Goff on a roster and without a clear-cut better option. On that front, it can be argued the challenge is already over for 2024 with the final week of the regular season here in many leagues.
As a sign of the ongoing contradiction, Goff has multiple passing touchdowns in four of his last five games (counting having already played in Week 14) while also topping 17 fantasy points (Yahoo! scoring) in just two of them. When Week 14 is complete, Goff will probably be a top-10 quarterback in fantasy heading into the playoffs.
Just in time to jump of the bandwagon.
Dreaded part of Jared Goff's 2024 fantasy schedule is now here
From Week 15-17, the playoffs in most fantasy leagues, Goff will face the Buffalo Bills at home before the aforementioned road games against the Bears and the 49ers.
The Bills enter Week 14 allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (Yahoo! scoring), and the Bears enter Week 14 allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. The 49ers are only marginally more favorable (12th-fewest).
Christopher Allen of Fantasy Life recently had Goff as his quarterback with the worst playoff schedule, hitting on some deeper reasons why.
The Lions have had a positive dropback over expectation rate in just two games this season. Goff has the four-lowest passing rate once the Lions get in scoring position. His schedule doesn’t do him any favors, either."
- Bills
- Bears
- 49ers
"All three have bottom-10 marks in fantasy points allowed to the position. Zooming in on the data doesn’t improve the picture. Since Week 7 (an 18-sample across all three defenses), only four QBs have scored more than 20.0 fantasy points. Five had less than ten points. While we can typically count on the Lions to hit a game’s over on their own, Goff doesn’t have to be a part of the fun, making him a QB2 for the playoffs."
That bottom-10 mark notation applies to passing yards allowed per game, which is of course where Goff lives (or dies) as a fantasy producer since he offers next to nothing as a runner.
Goff has a wide range of outcomes virtually every week in fantasy. But the upside is just not there for the playoffs this year, and the weekly floor is too low for comfort for win-or-go-home weeks in single-quarterback leagues. Even in two-quarterback formats there are better options than the Lions' signal caller.
Fantasy managers who will be in the playoffs with Goff in a roster, you've been warned.
