It’s over. Thousands of web browsers across the New York metropolitan area have added Tankathon to their bookmarks tab, and the web traffic of Spotrac’s upcoming free agents list has spiked in the region.
All eyes have turned to 2025… but is there even a point this time?
New York Jets fans have been in this position many times before, typically approaching it with a sarcastic excitement. This time, though, there is a prevailing apathy surrounding the Jets. Fans and media members are running out of ideas and plans that could turn this franchise around. It seems like the organization has tried everything, and yet, no matter what cast of characters they place into the various roles around the team… they remain the Same Old Jets.
The 2024 Jets had a roster that was labeled by its owner as one of the best in franchise history – even when the team was 2-3. Yet, here they are, right back in familiar territory at 2-6. Blockbuster faces, homemade fan-film results.
But the apathy should not – and must not – prevail. While it might feel like the New York Jets have tried everything, they have not. It has still been over five decades since they entered a season with the one thing that is necessary for consistent title contention.
A legitimate franchise quarterback.
The Aaron Rodgers dreams were fun, and it wasn’t foolish to think he could give the Jets a short-term title shot in the same way that Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady did. But it was always a miscalculated gamble. Going all-in on one season, or even two, is extremely unlikely to work out. Even the current Super Bowl favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs, have an implied probability of 20% to win the championship this year. After that, the next-leading favorites (Detroit and Baltimore) have an implied probability of 13%.
Winning the Super Bowl is extremely hard no matter how impeccable your roster is. It is always a longshot to win the title in any one season or even any given stretch of two-to-three seasons.
Your best shot at winning a Super Bowl is to have a homegrown franchise quarterback who can given you continuous rolls of the dice for years and years. The idea is to find a guy who can keep you in the mix for the duration of his career, and hopefully things break right for you one time.
And the Jets still haven’t had this since Joe Willie was chucking bombs at Shea Stadium.
The Jets are on the verge of missing the playoffs for the 14th consecutive season. That seems like a curse that can’t be broken, or the product of a hapless owner who will hold the team back for as long as he is in charge. It really isn’t, though. It’s just the product of not having the guy at quarterback.
After this year, the Jets will still have three more years to go until they match the Buffalo Bills’ infamous playoff drought (2000-16). How did Buffalo’s drought end? Josh Allen. That simple.
The Washington Commanders entered this season in the midst of a stretch that is arguably worse than the Jets’. They have gone 18 consecutive seasons without a playoff victory (last winning in 2005), and while they made the playoffs four times over that span, it was only because they won a weak division each time. Washington has one season of 10+ wins over the last 18 years – the Jets have three.
Yet, here sit the Commanders with a 6-2 record, the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and top 10 odds to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks. Why? Simple. Jayden Daniels.
Yes, I know that Jets fans who think the team is doomed as long as Woody Johnson owns the team are screaming at their phones right now, telling me that the Commanders were sold to new ownership and that is why they are winning. Agree to disagree, then. You can’t watch the product on the field and claim anything besides Daniels’s gifted talents are the reason Washington is 6-2, not the guy cashing the checks. The Commanders are still a bottom-rate organization; they ranked 32nd in the 2024 NFLPA poll.
Jets fans cannot quit on this franchise’s long-term prospects just yet. It is justifiable to lose all hope in the 2024 squad or any future seasons with Rodgers at the helm. But the idea that this team has tried everything and will never figure it out is misguided. This franchise is capable of winning someday. Worse holes have been climbed out of in the NFL, and it almost always happens because of one thing: a homegrown franchise quarterback.
The Jets have tried and failed to find their franchise quarterback multiple times. Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson – for one reason or another, none of these attempts worked. This 0-for-4 run is a significant contributor to the apathy surrounding the fanbase. Many fans are likely dreading the idea of taking this route again, believing the Jets will never be capable of developing a franchise quarterback.
When you break it down, though, the Jets have not been that far from getting it right. They just have not nailed the timing between a quality selection and a quality supporting cast.
Sanchez had everything he needed around him: an elite defense, an elite offensive line, a great run game, and solid weapons. He was simply a bust. The Jets missed; it happens. Even No. 1 picks are a 50-50 proposition at best. Shake it off and take your next shot.
Smith was a second-round pick, so his odds of succeeding were not great in the first place. He eventually displayed in Seattle that he has the ability to be an above-average starter, but it took him many years of development to reach that point.
For Smith to have worked out for the team that drafted him, he probably would have needed to sit and learn for multiple seasons and be placed in a great situation. The Jets threw him right into the fire, and the 2013 team was far from a great situation, so it was never going to work for Smith there. The Jets did identify a future Pro Bowler, though. They just didn’t support him adequately enough for him to unlock that potential as a Jet.
Darnold showed clear flashes of elite talent throughout his Jets tenure but went down with the ship in an utterly terrible situation. Darnold went through some horrid stretches of decision-making and ball security where he succumbed to bad habits that developed as a result of his putrid surroundings.
While Darnold did not perform any better in Carolina than he did in New York, the Panthers also had a weak roster. Once Darnold found a home in Minnesota where his surroundings were ideal, his special physical tools were allowed to shine.
It seems that Wilson was simply a miss, like Sanchez. Time will tell, but Wilson did not show nearly as much as Darnold did in his time as a Jet, hence the enormous difference in the trade compensation they commanded (Darnold netted second-, fourth-, and sixth-round picks while Wilson netted a sixth-for-seventh swap).
Plus, it’s not as if the Jets had other options beyond Wilson, as each of the other first-round quarterbacks drafted after Wilson were disappointing, too. They just got unlucky to land the second overall pick in a poor quarterback class. The only arguments you could make is that the Jets could have recognized the class was poor and punted to the 2022 draft while they continued to build the roster, or maybe keep Darnold and give him another shot, although I think the latter argument is faulty because the Jets’ roster in 2021 still likely would have been poor, resulting in further poor play from Darnold.
Ultimately, out of these four stabs at a franchise quarterback, it’s fair to say that two of them eventually proved they were capable of being quality starting quarterbacks (pending Darnold maintaining his start to 2024), while two of them were busts (barring a shock from Wilson). That’s a 50-50 hit rate, which is perfectly normal. Obviously, the problem is that the Jets did not reap the benefits of either hit. That’s because they did not adequately support either of those players.
It’s ironic and downright unlucky that the Jets’ two best supporting casts went to the two worst quarterbacks of the four. Sanchez had a near-superteam around him and couldn’t become a quality starter. While the coaching staff and offensive line around Wilson were questionable, the Jets had a fantastic defense and good weapons from 2022-23. It was more than enough for him to succeed if he truly had what it took to be a quality NFL starter, but Wilson whiffed on numerous open throws in close games where he could have sealed out wins, while throwing plenty of unforced interceptions.
Meanwhile, the two quarterbacks who went on to succeed, Smith and Darnold, were placed in abysmal situations where the Jets’ roster was in rebuilding mode and not yet ready to compete.
The bottom line is that the Jets cannot quit on their pursuit of a franchise quarterback just yet, and Jets fans cannot throw up their hands and pretend the team will never find one. It’s not even as if the Jets have tried all that often. The Jets have only taken four first-round quarterbacks this century: Chad Pennington, Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson.
Pennington was a hit. He led them to sustained success and probably would have brought them closer to a championship if not for injuries. Darnold has seemingly proven he can be a quality quarterback, but the Jets wasted his ability. Sanchez and Wilson were busts. Again, 50-50.
The Jets have to go back to the well and keep taking shots at franchise quarterbacks. But they have to make sure they build the right supporting cast so they avoid another Darnold (or, to an extent, Smith) situation. If the Jets build a quality supporting cast first and then start attacking the quarterback position in the draft, they are bound to find their man eventually.
It is time for the Jets to wave goodbye to the fantasy window of 2022-24 and set their sights on the only thing that is capable of saving a franchise that has stooped as low as the Jets have. Buffalo got their guy. Washington got their guy. Now the Jets need to get theirs.
Heck, people forget that before Patrick Mahomes came around, it was 25 years since the Chiefs reached a conference championship and 50 years since they reached a Super Bowl. That isn’t some impeccable organization with outstanding leadership – Chiefs players rated their ownership with an F- grade in the latest NFLPA poll. Kansas City only has a “winning culture” because they have Mahomes. End of story. If the Chiefs can overcome F- ownership to win Super Bowls because they have an elite quarterback, so can the Jets with Woody Johnson.
Acting like the Jets have tried everything and are doomed to fail for all of eternity is being far too bullish on a one-year window with a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. The 2024 Jets are doomed, but the New York Jets franchise does not have to be. It’s time for the Jets to make the main thing the main thing once again: getting a franchise quarterback.
How do they do it? When do they do it? I don’t know. You have to think that Woody Johnson will welcome Rodgers back if he wants to play another year. In that case, would the Jets use a first-round pick on a developmental quarterback when we know how much they care about using assets to supplement Rodgers?
If Rodgers leaves, do the Jets truly have the ideal situation for a rookie quarterback to step into?
There are numerous questions to answer regarding the Jets’ pursuit of their next hopeful franchise quarterback. I do not have them, and neither does anybody else. What I can say with the utmost certainty is that Jets fans cannot quit on this franchise just because one pipe-dream season failed to work out. The 2024 team was always a high-ceiling/high-risk bet. Unfortunately, they came up on the wrong side, but coming up short in this particular season is not enough to write off the Jets organization as eternally damned.
There is always hope. It starts with getting your guy. Find him, and he can pull your organization out of anything, no matter how long your playoff drought is or who your owner is.
