Because the San Francisco 49ers have been hammered by injuries, there’s no reason why the Packers should lose on Sunday. Except for these three reasons.
1. 49ers’ YAC Attack
It’s interesting to see the 49ers are only 26th in the NFL in yards after the catch per season.
How is that possible?
Tight end George Kittle is a YAC legend. Receiver Deebo Samuel is so tough that he was the 49ers’ featured running back when they stunned the Packers in the 2021 playoffs. Even with running back Christian McCaffrey missing most of the season, Jordan Mason has proven himself a physical runner.
Even without desired arm strength, Purdy is a downfield passer. That oftentimes doesn’t lend itself to YAC.
With Purdy out of the lineup, there’s no doubt 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan will want to give Brandon Allen as many easy completions as possible. It’s not just easy completions. It’s easy yards.
Expect Shanahan to lean on his proven playmakers.
Kittle has averaged 7.1 YAC per catch during his brilliant career and ranks second among tight ends in missed tackles this year, according to Pro Football Focus.
“He’s one of the best at the position, and I think he just embodies how they want to play, the style of play,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Kittle. “He’s relentless, and he’s going to fight for every inch, every blade of grass out on the field. I’ve got a lot of respect for him, having gone against him so many times. I think he’s an all-time great.”
Samuel has averaged 9.5 YAC for his career and 7.7 this year. McCaffrey has more than 4,000 YAC in his eight seasons.
What a mismatch this could be. Only three teams have missed more tackles than Green Bay, according to SportsRadar.
“As a quarterback, my job is just to get the ball to our playmakers. And so, that's my plan going into the game,” Allen said.
2. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason
Of course, the 49ers are going to run off the bus, run out of the locker room, run out of the huddle and run at Green Bay’s defense.
With a healthy McCaffrey leading the NFL in rushing yards, total yards and total touchdowns last season, San Francisco ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per carry.
Even with McCaffrey missing the first eight games of this season with an Achilles injury, the 49ers are seventh in rushing and fourth in yards per carry.
McCaffrey has struggled by his exceptional standard. In his two games, he’s averaged 3.7 yards per carry and broken only two tackles.
It’s perhaps only a matter of time, with Sunday perhaps being that time.
“It's vision,” run-game coordinator Chris Foerster told reporters when asked what McCaffrey is missing. “It's like anything else. We talk about how guys have to practice. Every sport, you have to practice. You have to go out and practice.
“Even though you've seen it in previous years (and) you'll get back into groove faster, you still have to go out and do it. You still have to go out and see it. You still have to get out in live tempo. You still have to get hit and tackled and get up and get back again and see it. So, it's just a matter of getting a few more looks at it, I think, for him.”
Last year, McCaffrey won the NFL rushing title by almost 300 yards. He ranked second with 929 yards after contact and 60 broken tackles, according to PFF.
In last year’s playoff game, he carried 17 times for 98 yards. He did most of it by himself with 74 yards after contact and nine missed tackles.
“I think he’s one of the most dynamic backs in this league,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “He runs hard, he’s fast, he’s got great contact balance. He can stay in and protect, he’s great in the pass game, he’s awesome in the red zone. I think he’s a dynamic football player.”
With the return of McCaffrey, Jordan Mason has fallen by the wayside with just three carries the last two games. But he’s seventh in the league with 5.13 yards per carry.
The Packers were gouged for 179 rushing yards by the Bears last week. The “two-headed monster,” as LaFleur called McCaffrey and Mason, is good enough to more than replicate Chicago’s chain-moving, clock-churning game plan from last week.
3. Jordan Love’s Interceptions
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has missed two-and-a-half games but is tied for the dubious NFL lead with 11 interceptions. He’s thrown at least one in all eight starts.
The 49ers’ defense, on the other hand, is seventh with 11 interceptions. Nine players have at least one, including All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, who has two. They picked off Love twice in last year’s playoff game.
What has Shanahan seen this year?
“Just how big of a threat he is,” he told reporters. “He's a thrower. There's not a throw he can't make. I love his mindset, how aggressive he is. He's always trying to end you.
“He's always going for the big plays, and he's got the skill-set with his feet, too, that, when things aren't there, he can make a lot of plays. Big, tall guy, very athletic, and we know how good he's been these two years and he is going to be good for a long time.”
The Packers are hoping Love can get on the type of run that carried the Packers into last year’s playoffs. Maybe last week’s game, when Love’s interception was the result of a bad throw instead of a bad read, was a step in the right direction.
“The first week back practicing after being out, he had to knock off the rust and, as the practices have accumulated, that rust is gone,” quarterbacks coach Tom Clements said. “Some of the interceptions were some decisions which he’d like to have back. The one against the Bears last week, he made the right decision, it was just an errant throw for whatever reason.
“We’ve talked about we have to get on a roll like we were last year, where we were moving the ball and he was throwing touchdowns and we were protecting the ball as an offense and he was protecting it as a passer. So, hopefully, we’re starting that.”
The 49ers are 4-0 when they win the turnover battle. A takeaway creating some easy points will be key to their upset chances.
