One of the few downsides of being a perennial contender in the NFL is having to deal with players departing after reaching the pinnacle of the sport. It's something the Kansas City Chiefs are becoming quite familiar with, and that's despite several core pieces returning on long-term contracts.
As the 2024-25 campaign rolls on, Andy Reid's team is currently in the middle of a title defense and is hoping to complete a championship three-peat in February. Regardless of what the end of the season brings, several notable players are projected to hit the open market. Given the status of Kansas City as a program, it's far from a guarantee that standouts like right guard Trey Smith and wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown will re-up.
That's exactly what Pro Football Focus is accounting for. On its early list of the top 50 players set to enter free agency in March, Smith (No. 3) and Brown (No. 34) are highlighted.
Trey Smith poised to cash in on open market in the spring
"Smith’s 82.7 PFF grade currently ranks fourth among all guards in the NFL this season, and he will still be only 25 years old when free agency opens next year. That’s a good combination for a big payday, given that multiple players at the position signed deals at or exceeding $20 million per year in 2024."
It's no surprise that Smith is viewed highly by PFF, as his grades routinely check out as some of the top ones for all NFL guards. In fact, the former sixth-round pick played a major role in the Chiefs' offensive line being ranked the No. 4 unit in football entering Week 6. Thanks to some elite run blocking and adequate pass protection, Smith has built a reputation as a very solid player who figures to cash out.
What could that figure be? Considering the boom of the guard market last offseason, Smith's first significant contract should break the bank. The 25-year-old's average annual value very well could land in the neighborhood of players like Landon Dickerson ($21 million), Chris Lindstrom ($20.5M), Robert Hunt ($20M), Quenton Nelson ($20M) and Samuel Cosmi ($18.5M). If that's the case, it'd be hard to see the Chiefs stomaching such a high-level cap hit considering center Creed Humphrey, left guard Joe Thuney and right tackle Jawaan Taylor are already on big-money deals.
What will Marquise "Hollywood" Brown's free agency outlook be after injury-shortened year?
"Brown was expected to be a marquee addition to a Chiefs' receiving corps in need of playmakers but instead is slated to miss the entire season with a shoulder injury. Brown posted a receiving grade between 68.1 and 68.7 each of the last three years, giving teams an indication of the type of receiver he can be."
Brown's 2024 season was over before it could even begin. After suffering a sternoclavicular injury during the preseason, the bone didn't heal properly and the veteran wideout was forced to undergo surgery that's expected to sideline him for the entire regular season. Although the door seems to be at least propped open for a possible return for the playoffs, the chances of Brown drastically impacting his free agent market between now and March seems rather low.
It's also difficult to get a good grasp of where Brown will slot in money-wise. He signed a one-year deal with Kansas City this past offseason worth up to $11M, which is far from an insane amount for a top-two receiver in an offense. The problem with Brown is he's several years removed from his last 1,000-yard season and is now coming off back-to-back underwhelming campaigns in the NFL. Even at the age of 27, that doesn't bode well for his value.
It's this writer's opinion that retaining Brown will prove to be much easier than getting Smith locked up long-term. With that said, both players are rightfully garnering consideration compared to their peers and both would be wise to see what's out there in regards to free agent opportunities.
