A top many Minnesota Vikings fans’ free-agency wishlist is improved interior offensive linemen — and no pending free-agent guard is as dominant as Kansas City Chiefs Pro Bowler Trey Smith.
Minnesota Star Tribune beat reporter Ben Goessling previously reported that the Vikings would be aggressive in addressing the offensive line and named Smith as a target in free agency.
However, that plan may never materialize if history is an indicator of how the Chiefs will operate in the aftermath of their Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles made Mahomes mortal, sacking him a career-high six times and pressuring him on 53.3% of his dropbacks in a 40-22 Chiefs loss. According to PFF, Mahomes had faced a higher pressure rate just once in his whole career — in his Super Bowl 55 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Kansas City invested heavily in its offensive line following that 31-9 loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
They signed Joe Thuney to the largest center contract in league history and drafted Creed Humphrey and Smith. Those three played pivotal roles in the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl victories in 2022 and 2023.
Had the Chiefs won their third consecutive Super Bowl, they may have felt comfortable letting Smith, who had not allowed a sack in 19 games heading into the Super Bowl, walk.
But now, the spotlight is on the Chiefs’ offensive line struggles and the chances of Kansas City allowing Smith to even reach free agency seem slim.
“The last time the offensive line got beat up this much the Chiefs did everything in their power to fix the offensive line. While their biggest issue is at left tackle, keeping the integrity of the offensive line with Smith at right guard,” A to Z Sports’ Tyler Forness wrote on February 10. “This could derail the Minnesota Vikings’ free agency plans, as they were set to attack free agency looking for Trey Smith.”
Whoever ends up will Smith will have to sign him to a massive contract. He is projected to garner a four-year, $82 million deal by PFF.
Vikings Would Be Wise to Not Chase Smith
While Smith is the crown jewel of the guard market, Minnesota would be wise to not pour all their spending money into improving just one spot on the offensive line.
Instead, the Vikings should look to a lower-tier in free agency that can still offer improvements — and there are plenty of options.
Will Fries and Teven Jenkins are a pair of 26-year-old guards who can be future building blocks on the interior, both estimated to land deals worth north of $12 million a season.
Kevin Zeitler may be 34 years old, but the veteran guard just turned in his best season to date, earning the first Pro Bowl mention of his career, with the Detroit Lions and could sign with the Vikings. He is projected to sign a one-year contract worth $6 million.
There are also riskier options like James Daniels, coming off an Achilles tear, or Mekhi Becton, who moved to guard last season, that could be targeted for shorter trial runs before investing fully in the interior.
Pick any combination instead of just Smith and the offensive line would likely perform better as a whole than with just the signing of Smith.
Vikings Should Follow Eagles’ Roster-Building Efforts
There’s the temptation for Minnesota to be a big-game hunter in free agency given the Vikings hold the fifth-most effective cap space to spend this offseason.
At some positions, it’s worthwhile to splurge in free agency, while others are better improved through the draft on a given year.
Philadelphia bolstered its trenches over the years with effective drafting of linemen and an infusion of veteran talent over the years.
The Vikings borrowed from that model on the edge last offseason, signing eventual Pro Bowlers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and drafting Dallas Turner in the first round. Minnesota’s edge rush is set for many years down the line and is not invested solely in one player like it was in the moonlight of Danielle Hunter‘s tenure with the Vikings.
They should take a similar approach on the defensive and offensive interior this offseason.
