When should we expect Alex Ovechkin to score goal No. 895?

Alex Ovechkin is inevitable. He can taste Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record of 894.

Not even a year ago, it didn’t feel like we’d see the day Ovechkin snipes No. 895. He sputtered through the first 43 games of his age-38 season, managing just eight goals. He sat at 830 for his career as of Jan. 24 and, with the age curve seemingly knocking him over like a sledgehammer, that 54-goal chasm suddenly felt endless. But Ovi returned to being Ovi for the rest of the season, burying 23 goals in his final 36 games, an astonishing result given his age. That lifted him all the way to 853 goals for his career, just 41 away from tying Gretzky and 42 from breaking the record.

“There were plenty of years where he’s reeling off 50 goals and it still just never seemed like he would ever get that close,” said Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson, Ovechkin’s longtime teammate, at the NHL Player Media Tour in Las Vegas this week. “And now that it is, I think that’s, in retrospect, just incredible that we’re even here where we are now. Certainly a monumental player and it’s been fun to watch.”

“It’s really cool to be able to play in the same division, to have had the history that we have over the years, to come in at the same time with pretty high expectations and to see him be this close to probably what was thought to be an untouchable record,” said Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Sidney Crosby, who debuted at the same time as Ovechkin in 2005-06. “It’s incredible what he’s doing and I feel pretty grateful to be part of that.”

So will Ovechkin hit the mark this season? If he scores at the pace of 2023-24’s first half, he won’t. But if converts at anything close to the pace of his torrid finish, he’ll hit the mark easily in 2024-25. The NHL is aware of that strong possibility and plans to enthusiastically celebrate him when it happens, regardless of his passport.

“It’s on the top of our list in terms of potential events that we want to promote and make sure don’t slip under the radar screen,” said NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly at the Player Media Tour. “Some some people have suggested, because Alex is Russian, that somehow this should be marginalized in some way. We couldn’t disagree more with that. He’s been a terrific ambassador for our game for 20 years now, and his enthusiasm for the game and passion for the game are infectious.”

So, prospective ticket buyers: When can you expect Ovechkin to break the record if it’s legitimately in the cards for 2024-25?

If he scores at exactly a 42-goal pace and plays 82 games: believe it or not, he’d break the record in Pittsburgh of all places, in front of his old rival Crosby.

Say Ovechkin scores at a 45-goal pace. In that case, he’d break in the record in Game 77 of the season, on the road against the New York Islanders.

If he manages a 50-goal pace and doesn’t miss a game, he’ll break the record in Game 69, at home to the Philadelphia Flyers in late March.

We also, of course, have to factor in the likelihood that Ovechkin will miss half a dozen games for general maintenance this season given he’ll be 39. That would change the trajectory as well.

It’s impossible to accurately project exactly when he’ll make history if he’s able to score 42 or more this season, but we certainly can pinpoint a range at which it’s possible. Call it, for instance, the final 15 games of Washington’s schedule.

Any of these games and destinations could play host to what will be an all-time moment for the sport: