The New York Jets’ run defense is still a concern in 2024
Most of the intrigue surrounding the New York Jets lives on the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers. Mike Williams. Tyron Smith. All the injury question marks. Nathaniel Hackett. However, the Jets’ defense has its own questions to answer, particularly against the run. With the losses of John Franklin-Myers and Al Woods and lesser replacements against the run (Haason Reddick and Leki Fotu), how will the Jets’ run defense hold up in 2024?
I already dug deep into the numbers to try to answer that question. Another way to look at it is to evaluate the culprits on the explosive run plays against the Jets during the 2023 season.
Statistically, the Jets were decent against the run overall. They ranked 14th in run defense DVOA, 11th in Pro Football Focus run defense grade, 10th in yards per carry (4.1), 8th in EPA per carry allowed (-0.12), and 8th in rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry (-0.1).
Still, the Jets had a big issue with allowing chunk rushes, particularly when the score was within reach. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, when the game’s win probability was within 20-80%, the Jets allowed 18 rushes of 15+ yards, tied for the fourth-worst in the NFL. They allowed 20 rushes with at least 10 RYOE, tied for the seventh-worst. They ranked 28th in open-field yards per carry (yards gained over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) at 0.96.
This indicates that explosive runs were the Jets’ defensive problem. While I could look at every rush of 10+ yards downfield, I’ll focus on those 15+ yard gains, the generally accepted threshold for an explosive rush.
Who were the biggest culprits on those explosive rushes, and what does that mean for the Jets’ run defense in 2024?
0-0 @ DAL, Q1 11:12, 3rd & 6, NYJ 20
It’s tough to say whether it was by design or if Quincy Williams made a mistake, but the problem here is that the Jets’ blitz design leaves the left B gap completely unaccounted for. John Franklin-Myers is in the gap initially before crashing inside to draw the guard out of the gap, which seemingly should allow for Williams to blitz behind him. However, Williams instead loops all the way to the other edge, leaving the gap wide open for Dak Prescott to scramble through. It’s hard to imagine the Jets would design a blitz that leaves a gap unaccounted for, so the best guess is that Williams blitzed the wrong gap.
Culprit: Quincy Williams
10-18 @ DAL, Q3 13:16, 1st & 10, DAL 42
On a pin-pull, Quinton Jefferson loses leverage completely on the double-team to open up the play-side C-gap. Quinnen Williams gets a push on the pinning center but can’t quite close the gap. Mosley overruns the play and then misses the ankle tackle, turning what would have been a three-yard gain into a much bigger play. Jordan Whitehead’s missed tackle gives Tony Pollard an extra eight yards, completing the 23-yard gain.
Culprits: Quinton Jefferson, C.J. Mosley, Jordan Whitehead
0-3 vs. KC, Q1 8:41, 3rd & 1, NYJ 48
This was one of the most infuriating plays of the season for the Jets because of a clear penalty that the referees missed. On a one-back power call on third and short, Micheal Clemons knifes inside and gets past Jawaan Taylor’s attempted down block on a tackle overset look, but he misses the tackle in the backfield. Jamien Sherwood could have been there to stop a big gain from Isiah Pacheco, but Donovan Smith bear-hugged him and then tripped him, leaving the gap wide open. Whitehead was the last hope for the Jets but took too flat of an angle toward the play, allowing Trey Smith to block him and clear the remaining space. D.J. Reed can’t shed Marquez Valdes-Scantling until it’s too late. 48-yard touchdown.
Culprits: Micheal Clemons, Whitehead, D.J. Reed
20-20 vs. KC, Q3 7:21, 1st & 10, KC 12
Another pin-pull. Quinnen Williams and Solomon Thomas are knifing toward the backside of the play, making the down blocks easy for the blockers. Although pulling left guard Joe Thuney mostly whiffs on his block on Will McDonald, McDonald gives up the edge by cheating inside instead of squeezing the block to funnel the run inside. Pacheco also outruns Michael Carter II until Williams ultimately scrapes over the top for the ankle tackle out of bounds. Taylor may have held Mosley on the play but got away with it. 17-yard gain for Pacheco.
Culprits: Will McDonald, Michael Carter II
20-23 vs. KC, Q4 6:21, 3rd & 23, KC 40
This was one of the key plays leading to the Jets’ ultimate defeat against Kansas City. On third-and-23, the defense’s first job is to keep Patrick Mahomes in the pocket. They’re initially doing a good job of it, but Bryce Huff and Franklin-Myers choose to try to loop outside instead of keeping containment in the middle. This opens a wide-open gap for Mahomes to run through. Mosley takes an illegal contact call, giving the Chiefs the first down anyway, but the 25-yard run was inexcusable.
Still, Taylor held Johnson for several seconds on the play. No call.
Culprits: Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers
3-0 @ DEN, Q1 10:20, 3rd & 8, DEN 27
As is typical of the Jets’ defense, they struggle to contain quarterback runs on third down. When Bryce Huff stunts inside Quinnen Williams’ penetration, that leaves a wide-open gap to Russell Wilson’s left. Wilson takes it. Quincy Williams probably should have recognized that Wilson was running more quickly, and perhaps Whitehead could have taken a better angle toward Wilson. Still, the Jets’ stunt caused the open hole. 16-yard gain for Wilson.
Culprits: Stunt, no one specifically responsible
3-0 @ DEN, Q1 9:01, 2nd & 8, DEN 45
On the toss, Quincy Williams is shot out of a cannon but overruns the play because he’s not in control, making it easy for the running back to sidestep him. Tony Adams takes a terrible angle toward the run, coming down flat rather than scraping over the top; he could have kept it to a 10-yard gain. Mosley takes too long to shed his block and is simply too slow to catch up with Jaleel McLaughlin (4.44 speed). Ultimately, it’s a 38-yard gain when it should have been 10 yards.
(It’s noteworthy that Huff was on the field on this play, making his on-off plus-minus look worse in the run game, but the run goes outside to the opposite side. It is true that he makes a half-hearted attempt to catch up to the play despite his speed; if that was Johnson with his 4.58 speed, he might have run it down from the backside.)
Culprits: Williams, Tony Adams, Mosley
5-7 @ DEN, Q1 0:24, 3rd & 4, NYJ 26
Once again, the Jets fail to contain a quarterback run on third down. Johnson has coverage responsibility on the back, vacating the edge. Franklin-Myers gets knocked to the ground on his pass rush, further opening a gap to the right for Wilson. It’s a lot to ask for C.J. Mosley to guard massive gaps to both his left and right, although he does overrun the play outside and give Wilson an easy lane to the inside. Whitehead gets caught flat-footed and Wilson runs past him. Adams also takes a bad tackling angle, allowing Wilson to avoid the tackle. All told, it’s a 21-yard gain on 3rd and 4.
Culprits: Franklin-Myers, Whitehead, Adams
8-10 @ DEN, Q2 4:36, 2nd & 10, NYJ 45
A pin-pull to McLaughlin has Quinnen Williams caught upfield, leaving his spot vacated. Jefferson is pushed backward several yards, allowing easy cutback access for McLaughlin. Clemons’ missed tackle turns what would have been a medium gain into a 21-yarder. Carter II gets pushed completely backward, giving more space for the back. Bryce Hall (No. 37) also doesn’t take a great angle, waiting for the receiver to block him rather than holding leverage.
Culprits: Quinnen Williams, Clemons, Carter II, Bryce Hall
7-3 vs. NYG, Q2 15:00, 1st & 10, NYG 45
Another typical Jets struggle on a quarterback run, although this one wasn’t on third down and looked like a designed play. Saquon Barkley’s motion out of the backfield moves Quincy Williams out of what would have been ideal positioning to make the play pre-snap. Quinnen Williams does a good job holding leverage initially, but he ultimately loses leverage inside to Taylor. Unlike Quinnen, Quincy ducks inside on his block rather than maintaining two-way leverage, giving Taylor more space. The ultimate culprit here, though, is Whitehead, who comes running downhill and completely whiffs on the tackle. That turns what would have been a five-yard gain into a 17-yarder.
Culprits: Quincy Williams, Whitehead
