Why A Baker Mayfield Extension Is Unlikely Right Now

Baker Mayfield played incredibly in 2024. He ranked third in passing yards, tied for second in touchdowns, seventh in yards per attempt and fifth in EPA/dropback. All of that is to say he massively outperformed the three-year, $100 million contract he signed last year.

That rightly has some wondering, “Could Mayfield push for a contract extension this year?”

It would not be an unreasonable ask for him and his agent Thomas Mills.

But I don’t think it is a likely outcome at this time.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield’s Valuation

Of the various models I use to determine contract projections, the best has Baker Mayfield’s APY pegged at $54 million, which is over $20 million more per year than he’s currently making. The three closest comps we found for him all came last year in Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff. The average of those three contracts, adjusted for this year’s salary cap come to a $55 million APY. That creates a pretty narrow band as the basis for an extension.

Of all three of those players, Goff stands out as the closest comp for several reasons. Tua was 26 last year and coming off of his rookie deal. Cousins was 36 and had signed multiple contracts over his career. Mayfield is 30, as Goff was last year. And he is signing his third deal just as Goff did last year.

Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards; 41 touchdowns and had 22 big time throws while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt last year. In 2023, Goff threw for 4,574 yards, 30 touchdowns and had 20 big time throws while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt.

Mayfield’s raw stats are a bit better, but he also threw more interceptions than Goff in the comparable years. Goff has a more consistent past with a better playoff track record, so it stands to even the two out.

This comp would likely be the case that Mills presents the Bucs if he were to engage them in discussions on an extension. Goff signed a four-year, $212 million extension that averages $53 million per year. This would support Mills asking for $54 million per year for Mayfield, which would make him the seventh-highest paid quarterback in the NFL on a per-year basis. Right now Mayfield is the 18th-highest paid QB.

As for length, Goff signed for four years with one left on his previous deal, creating a five-year total. Mayfield has two years left on his current deal so a three-year extension would hit the same total years. This would make the proposed extension three-years and $162 million. It would also bring the total deal, when incorporating his existing years, to five years and $234.5 million, averaging $46.9 million per year.

As for guarantees, Goff got about $113,611,832 of his contract fully guaranteed. As is the nature of these deals, Mayfield and company would want to top that, so guaranteeing the remaining portion of the $72.5 million he is owed on his current deal, plus $42.5 million of his new money would get him to $115 million and outpace Goff.

The Geno Smith Factor

Part of the reason why Baker Mayfield will probably wait to extend any overtures to the Bucs is the pending extension Geno Smith is likely to receive this offseason. Smith created the model for the contract that Mayfield is currently on when he signed the first of the “middle class” quarterback contracts in 2023.

Smith has one year left that deal and is looking for an extension north of $40 million per year. There are reports that Smith turned down a $45 million APY extension offered to him by the Seahawks which was the impetus for them dealing him to Las Vegas.

If that is in fact true, and Smith is driving for a deal where his APY starts with a five and not a four, it could have an upwardly driven impact on Mayfield’s price tag.

It makes sense for Mayfield to wait out Smith before approaching the Bucs.

The Unlikelihood Of An Extension This Year

When the Bucs signed Baker Mayfield to his current deal it was structured to give the Bucs some cover in stages. The team could walk away in 2025 if Mayfield fell off last year was the first layer. The second layer was the benefit of a cheap 2026 if Mayfield was successful last year. And he was. The proposed extension above would negate that cheap year.

When weighing these decisions one has to consider the opportunity cost. Outside of Geno Smith there is only one pending quarterback deal on the horizon. Brock Purdy and the 49ers are heading towards an extension that will eclipse $50 million per year.

By how much remains to be seen. But I doubt it clears Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence’s $55 million APY. If it doesn’t, there is little concern that Mayfield’s APY would climb significantly from the $54 million price tag I have projected here.

There is a growing trend of teams extending players with two or more years left on their contracts. Edge rushers Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett, quarterback Josh Allen and left tackle Trent Williams all received extensions in the past 12 months under such circumstances. But the Bucs have not set that precedent organizationally, and I don’t believe they will have much of an appetite for it.

The more likely path is that the two sides revisit an extension in 2026.