When you look at a team as talented as the Tampa Bay Lightning, they seem to possess everything needed to win another championship. Andrei Vasilevsky, Victor Hedman, and Nikita Kucherov are all among the most dominant players in the NHL at their positions. And with younger talents like Hagel, Cirelli, Point, and now Jake Guentzel joining the roster, the Bolts have an excellent mix of veteran experience and emerging stars. All of this, combined with one of the league's best coaches, Jon Cooper, makes it no surprise that this team reached three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.
Despite how talented the roster looks on paper, many experts and fans believe Tampa Bay is past its prime and that their reign as perennial cup contenders is over. The Lightning's disappointing first-round exits in the past two years may have caused many to forget what this team is capable of when firing on all cylinders. With that said, don’t let recency bias mislead you into believing that the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty has come to an end.
So what's been preventing Tampa Bay from finding success in the playoffs and is Jake Guentzel really the key to fixing it?
We know that offense isn't the issue because over the past two seasons the Lightning have been one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL, while also having the second best power play during that time, only behind the Edmonton Oilers.
So, if the problem isn't related to offence, is it defense? Well, not exactly. The Lightning's defense clearly has room for improvement, but they are fortunate to possess the ultimate insurance policy with the Big Cat in net. Over the past two seasons, their goals allowed and shorthanded goals allowed have been higher than in previous years. Although it's extremely difficult to simultaneously have one of the best offences and defences in the league, the acquisition of Ryan McDonagh and his leadership paired with the young defensive core gaining more experience should help address many of the Lightning's defensive problems.
To fully understand what may be this team's biggest weakness one must look at multiple stats to see the full picture. I will first lay out the stats courtesy of StatMuse and then extrapolate on their significance.
In 2021, during the 56-game season, the Bolts had 40 power-play goals, 180 total goals scored, and 145 goals allowed. In 2022, they scored 62 power-play goals, totaling 285 goals scored and allowing 228. In 2023, they recorded 71 power-play goals, with 280 total goals scored and 252 goals allowed. Finally, in the 2024 season, they achieved 71 power-play goals, 288 total goals scored, and allowed 267 goals
The ratio of pp goals to total goals scored, and goals allowed to total goals scored are as follows: 2020-21 season: 0.22 and 0.805, 2021-22 season: 0.218 and 0.8, 2022-23: 0.254 and 0.9, and in 2023-24: 0.247 and 0.927.
When comparing the stats from the last two years to those from the two prior, a slight trend becomes apparent. The Lightning enjoyed greater playoff success when they adopted a more defensive style, outscoring their opponents by nearly 20%. In contrast, their current margin is less than 10%. Although this observation may seem obvious, the more significant trend lies in how these goals are being scored.
Over the past couple of seasons, nearly 25% of the goals scored by the Lightning have come from their power play, reflecting a nearly 3% increase compared to the two seasons before, when they reached both Finals. While this change might not seem like much, the over-reliance on power-play scoring could be the key contributing factor to the Bolts' struggles to advance past the first round since 2022.
Can Jake Guentzel change the way the Lightning play?
Until being traded to the Carolina Hurricanes near the end of last season, Guentzel had spent his entire NHL career playing alongside Sidney Crosby on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Out of the 491 points Guentzel has in the NHL, only 121 of them came on the power play, accounting for less than 25%.
In contrast, when comparing this statistic with players from Tampa Bay's top power play unit, the difference in style of play becomes more evident. Brayden Point has scored 553 points in the NHL, with 170 coming from the power play (31%). Steven Stamkos has 422 power-play points out of his 1,137 career points (37%), and Nikita Kucherov has 318 power-play points out of 873 total points (36%).
The Lightning's power play has been so good for so long that, in a way, they rely on it as a crutch, which could be taking away from their 5-on-5 game. While there's no doubt that Guentzel's offensive numbers will improve from Tampa's power play, the real question is whether he can help enhance the team's 5-on-5 performance.
As per one of my previous articles, "The Lightning's power play has consistently ranked among the league's best, thanks largely to the dominance of Stamkos, Point, and Kucherov together. Stamkos and Kucherov possess wicked one-timer shots from the left and right sides, while Point, despite his smaller stature, utilizes his soft hands and quick release to excel in the bumper spot. Many are curious to see if Guentzel's addition on the left side can replicate the power play's past success."
Guentzel may lack the patented Stammer Hammer one-timer, but he is a faster and younger player, so there's no reason the team can't adapt and improve with him replacing the former captain on the left wing. Assuming he remains healthy this season, we expect to see Guentzel surpass his career highs in both points and power-play points (84 points in 2021-2022 and 23 power-play points in 2022-23).
Having a great power play is a huge advantage in the regular season, but in the playoffs, it gets that much harder to score when up a man. If Guentzel can mesh well with Tampa Bay's existing core and elevate their five-on-five performance, he could very well be the spark that reignites their quest for another Stanley Cup.
