The Montreal Canadiens’ top line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield scored twice against the Capitals during five-on-five play on Friday night. They attempted 23 attempts to Washington’s eight. Of the total of both team’s expected goals, the Habs controlled 79 percent of them. This is too much and too many.
The Capitals’ collective play had a lot to do with it. Failed zone exits and giveaways were too common, but there’s another factor to the Caps’ struggle I have to highlight.
With the last change on home ice, Montreal coach Martin St Louis was able to pick the matchups for his top line, and his preference was obvious: the one with Alex Ovechkin on it. The numbers below are the percentage of Nick Suzuki’s five-on-five ice time that has been shared with each Caps line per game, using centers as a proxy.
In the first two games, when Washington got last change, head coach Spencer Carbery used his second line – Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Tom Wilson – to counter the Suzuki line for 23 of his 34 minutes. It worked okay. But on Friday night, that ice time dropped to just two minutes and ten seconds. Carbery could no longer hide his top line from the Suzuki line, and St Louis pounced on it.
Against the top line, the Habs ate. They scored two goals to Washington’s one, outshot them 19 attempts to six, and generated 1.3 expected goals to the Caps’ 0.4. Both Habs goals stung, but the Caufield one grated especially.
After Andrew Mangiapane helped recover the puck, Rasmus Sandin attempted a breakout pass to (out-of-frame) Alex Ovechkin, who was being stalked by Lane Hutson. Sandin’s pass was both unwise and weak. Hutson intercepted it to set up the goal.
(Later, Juraj Slavkovsky’s goal – the pivotal one on which Logan Thompson was injured – came while top-line center Dylan Strome was on the ice again, but he was with Raddysh instead of Ovechkin on that shift. The earlier Caufield goal came on another rare shift when Mangiapane was on Ovechkin’s opposite wing instead of his usual partner, Anthony Beauvillier.)
The Habs will again have last change on Sunday night, but Carbery has options to limit the Suzuki line. Most importantly, he should instruct his players to play it safe with defensive-zone passes along the boards rather than easy-to-steal ones up the middle. He should keep shifts short to rotate out weaker defensive combinations against Suzuki. And he should change his top line’s personnel to limit their defensive weakness.
I’m sure by now you’re thinking it, so I’m just going to say it: they need Aliaksei Protas.
The 25-year-old giant traveled with the team to Montreal but was held out of Game 3 as he recovers from a cut to his foot. His status is unknown for Game 4. It would sure help if he plays; Ovechkin and Strome are far better with him.
The improvement is on both ends of the puck, but it’s most dramatic on defense. Without Protas, the line allows shot attempts at about the same rate as the Anaheim Ducks, who finished with 80 standings points. With Protas, they allow shot attempts more like the Dallas Stars. That’s still among the league’s bottom ten, but it’s no longer catastrophic, and it’s more than offset by their prolific offense.
Now at the end of his breakout season, Protas has established himself as a true star, quintupling last season’s goal count to hit 30 in 2024-25. He’s a proven impact player in all three zones, and that impact will be critical to shutting Suzuki up on Sunday.
